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Norway U19 vs Bosnia-Herzegovina U19 — UEFA U19 Championship - Qualification 2022

Norway U19
Norway U19
FT
2 – 2
HT: 0 – 1
Bosnia-Herzegovina U19
Bosnia-Herzegovina U19
3/23/2024UEFA U19 Championship - QualificationUEFA U19 Championship - Qualification · Elite Round - 3Skagerak Arena

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 14+ matches

Norway U1969%
×Draw17%
Bosnia-Herzegovina U1914%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Norway U19
2.48
Bosnia-Herzegovina U19
1.02

Norway U19 creates 143% more chances

Season form · 19 home / 14 away

creates per match

Norway U19
3.26
Bosnia-Herzegovina U19
1.29

allows per match

Norway U19
0.74
Bosnia-Herzegovina U19
1.71

finishing

Norway U19+0.00on par
Bosnia-Herzegovina U19+0.00on par

Total goals

67%Over
  • Over67
  • Under33

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

59%Yes
  • Yes59
  • No41

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Norway U19 ↓

Bosnia-Herzegovina U19 →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–03%
0–13%
0–22%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–08%
1–18%
1–24%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–09%
2–110%
2–25%
2–32%
2–40%
3
3–08%
3–18%
3–24%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–05%
4–15%
4–23%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 2–1 (10%) · grid covers 90% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
97%3%1.5
86%14%2.5
67%33%3.5
46%54%4.5
26%74%

Double chance

Norway U19 or draw
86%
Norway U19 or Bosnia-Herzegovina U19
83%
Draw or Bosnia-Herzegovina U19
31%

Winning margin

Norway U19 wins by 2+
47%
Bosnia-Herzegovina U19 wins by 2+
5%

Team goals

Norway U19 1+ goals
92%
Norway U19 2+ goals
70%
Norway U19 3+ goals
44%
Bosnia-Herzegovina U19 1+ goals
64%
Bosnia-Herzegovina U19 2+ goals
27%
Bosnia-Herzegovina U19 3+ goals
8%

Draw no bet

Norway U19 (draw refunded)
83%
Bosnia-Herzegovina U19 (draw refunded)
17%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
51%
Both score & under 3
8%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Norway U19 at home — creates 3.26, concedes 0.74 · 19 matches

Bosnia-Herzegovina U19 away — creates 1.29, concedes 1.71 · 14 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Norway U19 attack 3.26 + Bosnia-Herzegovina U19 defence 1.71 → ÷2 → 2.48

Bosnia-Herzegovina U19 attack 1.29 + Norway U19 defence 0.74 → ÷2 → 1.02

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 69%?"

Norway U19 scores more
69%
level
17%
Bosnia-Herzegovina U19 scores more
14%

Norway U19 at 69% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 69% does not mean "Norway U19 will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Norway U19 vs Bosnia-Herzegovina U19

Norway U19 and Bosnia-Herzegovina U19 drew 2-2 in UEFA U19 Championship - Qualification on March 23, 2024.

The match was played at Skagerak Arena in Skien.