Norway U19 2–0 Belgium U19: Result & Stats

Norway U19

FT

2 – 0

HT: 0 – 0

Belgium U19

M. Øren 78'

S. Olderheim 52'

3/19/2025

UEFA U19 Championship - Qualification · Elite Round - 1Stadion Event Place

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 14+ matches

Norway U1959%

×Draw20%

Belgium U1920%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.2%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Norway U19Expected goals in this matchBelgium U19

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

2.17

1.19

Norway U19

2.17

Belgium U19

1.19

Norway U19 creates 82% more chances

Season form · 19 home / 14 away

3.26

creates per match

1.64

0.74

allows per match

1.07

creates per match

Norway U19

3.26

Belgium U19

1.64

allows per match

Norway U19

0.74

Belgium U19

1.07

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Norway U19+0.00on par

Belgium U19+0.00on par

Total goals

Over65
Under35

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes62
No38

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Norway U19 ↓

Belgium U19 →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–03%

0–14%

0–22%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–08%

1–19%

1–25%

1–32%

1–41%

2

2–08%

2–110%

2–26%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–06%

3–17%

3–24%

3–32%

3–40%

4

4–03%

4–14%

4–22%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 2–1 (10%) · grid covers 93% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

97%3%1.5

85%15%2.5

65%35%3.5

43%57%4.5

24%76%

Double chance

Norway U19 or draw

80%

Norway U19 or Belgium U19

80%

Draw or Belgium U19

41%

Winning margin

Norway U19 wins by 2+

37%

Belgium U19 wins by 2+

8%

Team goals

Norway U19 1+ goals

89%

Norway U19 2+ goals

64%

Norway U19 3+ goals

36%

Belgium U19 1+ goals

70%

Belgium U19 2+ goals

33%

Belgium U19 3+ goals

12%

Draw no bet

Norway U19 (draw refunded)

75%

Belgium U19 (draw refunded)

25%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

53%

Both score & under 3

9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Norway U19 at home — creates 3.26, concedes 0.74 · 19 matches

Belgium U19 away — creates 1.64, concedes 1.07 · 14 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Norway U19 attack 3.26 + Belgium U19 defence 1.07 → ÷2 → 2.17

Belgium U19 attack 1.64 + Norway U19 defence 0.74 → ÷2 → 1.19

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 59%?"

Norway U19 scores more

59%

level

20%

Belgium U19 scores more

20%

Norway U19 at 59% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 59% does not mean "Norway U19 will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

52'

S. Olderheim

62'

L. Vergeylen← R. Bounida

62'

Y. Musuayi← K. Furo

70'

F. Ardraa← T. Nyhammer

70'

S. Jacobsen Prestmo← L. Remmem

75'

S. Nibombé← J. Kongolo

75'

W. Da Costa← C. Nuozzi

77'

N. Fuglestad← A. Røssing-Lelesiit

78'

M. Øren

87'

J. Norbye← J. Gonstad

88'

T. Engebakken← S. Olderheim

88'

S. Buggea← J. Bawuah

Norway

Belgium

1

Corte

15

Mbamba-Mu

3

▼

Kongolo

2

Barry

6

Verstraet

10

▼

Bounida

5

Hoogen

8

▼

Bawuah

7

Vroninks

11

▼

Nuozzi

9

▼

Furo

1

Saetren

4

Kjelsen

3

⚽

2

13

6

8

▼

Nyhammer

14

▼

Remmem

11

⚽

▼

Olderheim

7

▼

Gonstad

15

▼

Røssing-L

Manager: E. Sel

70'▲F. Ardraa←▼T. Nyhammer

70'▲S. Jacobsen Prestmo←▼L. Remmem

77'▲N. Fuglestad←▼A. Røssing-Lelesiit

87'▲J. Norbye←▼J. Gonstad

88'▲T. Engebakken←▼S. Olderheim

Norway U19 substitutes

17Ardraa18Prestmo16Fuglestad5Norbye19Engebakken10Nyheim20Reitan-Sunde12Stær-Jensen9Spiten-Nysæter

Manager: S. Vermant

62'▲L. Vergeylen←▼R. Bounida

62'▲Y. Musuayi←▼K. Furo

75'▲S. Nibombé←▼J. Kongolo

75'▲W. Da Costa←▼C. Nuozzi

88'▲S. Buggea←▼J. Bawuah

Belgium U19 substitutes

13Vergeylen19Musuayi4Nibombé14Costa17Buggea20Vanderdonck16Goemaere18Wola-Wetshay12Pieklak

UEFA U19 Championship - Qualification: Norway U19 2–0 Belgium U19

Norway U19 beat Belgium U19 2-0 in UEFA U19 Championship - Qualification on March 19, 2025.

Goals: S. Olderheim (52'), M. Øren (78').

The match was played at Stadion Event Place in Beograd.

Norway U19 vs Belgium U19 — UEFA U19 Championship - Qualification 2022

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Total goals

Both teams score

Match Events

Head to Head

UEFA U19 Championship - Qualification: Norway U19 2–0 Belgium U19