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Norway U18 W vs Iceland U19 W — Friendlies Women 2026

Norway U18 W
Norway U18 W
FT
2 – 3
HT: 1 – 2
Iceland U19 W
Iceland U19 W
S. Pallesen-Nygard 83'
H. Halbmayr 6'
H. Helgadottir 82'
E. Bjornsdottir 26'
B. Finnbogadottir 22'
6/6/2026Friendlies WomenFriendlies Women · Friendly International Women

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 3+ matches

Norway U18 W45%
×Draw23%
Iceland U19 W32%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.2%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Norway U18 W
1.83
Iceland U19 W
1.50

Norway U18 W creates 22% more chances

Season form · 3 home / 6 away

creates per match

Norway U18 W
2.33
Iceland U19 W
1.67

allows per match

Norway U18 W
1.33
Iceland U19 W
1.33

finishing

Norway U18 W+0.00on par
Iceland U19 W+0.00on par

Total goals

65%Over
  • Over65
  • Under35

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

65%Yes
  • Yes65
  • No35

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Norway U18 W ↓

Iceland U19 W →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–04%
0–15%
0–24%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–07%
1–110%
1–27%
1–34%
1–41%
2
2–06%
2–19%
2–27%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–04%
3–16%
3–24%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–02%
4–13%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
96%4%1.5
84%16%2.5
65%35%3.5
42%58%4.5
24%76%

Double chance

Norway U18 W or draw
68%
Norway U18 W or Iceland U19 W
77%
Draw or Iceland U19 W
55%

Winning margin

Norway U18 W wins by 2+
25%
Iceland U19 W wins by 2+
15%

Team goals

Norway U18 W 1+ goals
84%
Norway U18 W 2+ goals
54%
Norway U18 W 3+ goals
28%
Iceland U19 W 1+ goals
78%
Iceland U19 W 2+ goals
44%
Iceland U19 W 3+ goals
19%

Draw no bet

Norway U18 W (draw refunded)
59%
Iceland U19 W (draw refunded)
41%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
55%
Both score & under 3
10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Norway U18 W at home — creates 2.33, concedes 1.33 · 3 matches

Iceland U19 W away — creates 1.67, concedes 1.33 · 6 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Norway U18 W attack 2.33 + Iceland U19 W defence 1.33 → ÷2 → 1.83

Iceland U19 W attack 1.67 + Norway U18 W defence 1.33 → ÷2 → 1.50

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 45%?"

Norway U18 W scores more
45%
level
23%
Iceland U19 W scores more
32%

Norway U18 W at 45% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 45% does not mean "Norway U18 W will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

6'
H. Halbmayr
22'
B. Finnbogadottir
26'
E. Bjornsdottir
82'
H. Helgadottir
83'
S. Pallesen-Nygard

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Friendlies Women: Norway U18 W 2–3 Iceland U19 W

Iceland U19 W beat Norway U18 W 3-2 in Friendlies Women on June 6, 2026.

Goals: H. Halbmayr (6'), B. Finnbogadottir (22'), E. Bjornsdottir (26'), H. Helgadottir (82'), S. Pallesen-Nygard (83').