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Norway U18 vs Romania U18 — Friendlies 2026

Norway U18
Norway U18
FT
2 – 2
Romania U18
Romania U18
3/24/2024FriendliesFriendlies · World: Friendly International

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 4+ matches

Norway U1839%
×Draw26%
Romania U1835%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Norway U18
1.38
Romania U18
1.31

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 4 home / 8 away

creates per match

Norway U18
1.75
Romania U18
0.88

allows per match

Norway U18
1.75
Romania U18
1.00

finishing

Norway U18+0.00on par
Romania U18+0.00on par

Total goals

50%Under
  • Under50
  • Over50

Close call

Both teams score

55%Yes
  • Yes55
  • No45

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Norway U18 ↓

Romania U18 →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–07%
0–19%
0–26%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–09%
1–112%
1–28%
1–34%
1–41%
2
2–06%
2–18%
2–26%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–03%
3–14%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
93%7%1.5
75%25%2.5
50%50%3.5
28%72%4.5
13%87%

Double chance

Norway U18 or draw
65%
Norway U18 or Romania U18
74%
Draw or Romania U18
61%

Winning margin

Norway U18 wins by 2+
18%
Romania U18 wins by 2+
16%

Team goals

Norway U18 1+ goals
75%
Norway U18 2+ goals
40%
Norway U18 3+ goals
16%
Romania U18 1+ goals
73%
Romania U18 2+ goals
38%
Romania U18 3+ goals
14%

Draw no bet

Norway U18 (draw refunded)
52%
Romania U18 (draw refunded)
48%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
42%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Norway U18 at home — creates 1.75, concedes 1.75 · 4 matches

Romania U18 away — creates 0.88, concedes 1.00 · 8 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Norway U18 attack 1.75 + Romania U18 defence 1.00 → ÷2 → 1.38

Romania U18 attack 0.88 + Norway U18 defence 1.75 → ÷2 → 1.31

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 39%?"

Norway U18 scores more
39%
level
26%
Romania U18 scores more
35%

Norway U18 at 39% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 39% does not mean "Norway U18 will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Friendlies: Norway U18 2–2 Romania U18

Norway U18 and Romania U18 drew 2-2 in Friendlies on March 24, 2024.