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Norway U17 vs Moldova U17 — UEFA U17 Championship - Qualification 2022

Norway U17
Norway U17
FT
1 – 1
HT: 1 – 1
Moldova U17
Moldova U17
10/11/2025UEFA U17 Championship - QualificationUEFA U17 Championship - Qualification · Group Stage - 1

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 15+ matches

Norway U1751%
×Draw24%
Moldova U1726%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Norway U17
1.74
Moldova U17
1.17

Norway U17 creates 49% more chances

Season form · 15 home / 15 away

creates per match

Norway U17
1.60
Moldova U17
0.73

allows per match

Norway U17
1.60
Moldova U17
1.87

finishing

Norway U17+0.00on par
Moldova U17+0.00on par

Total goals

56%Over
  • Over56
  • Under44

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

57%Yes
  • Yes57
  • No43

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Norway U17 ↓

Moldova U17 →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–05%
0–16%
0–24%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–010%
1–111%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–08%
2–110%
2–26%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–05%
3–16%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
95%5%1.5
79%21%2.5
56%44%3.5
33%67%4.5
17%83%

Double chance

Norway U17 or draw
74%
Norway U17 or Moldova U17
76%
Draw or Moldova U17
49%

Winning margin

Norway U17 wins by 2+
28%
Moldova U17 wins by 2+
10%

Team goals

Norway U17 1+ goals
82%
Norway U17 2+ goals
52%
Norway U17 3+ goals
25%
Moldova U17 1+ goals
69%
Moldova U17 2+ goals
33%
Moldova U17 3+ goals
11%

Draw no bet

Norway U17 (draw refunded)
66%
Moldova U17 (draw refunded)
34%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
46%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Norway U17 at home — creates 1.60, concedes 1.60 · 15 matches

Moldova U17 away — creates 0.73, concedes 1.87 · 15 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Norway U17 attack 1.60 + Moldova U17 defence 1.87 → ÷2 → 1.74

Moldova U17 attack 0.73 + Norway U17 defence 1.60 → ÷2 → 1.17

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 51%?"

Norway U17 scores more
51%
level
24%
Moldova U17 scores more
26%

Norway U17 at 51% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 51% does not mean "Norway U17 will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Norway U17 vs Moldova U17

Norway U17 and Moldova U17 drew 1-1 in UEFA U17 Championship - Qualification on October 11, 2025.