Norway U17 0–7 Italy U17: Result & Stats

Norway U17

FT

0 – 7

HT: 0 – 5

Italy U17

11/11/2024

UEFA U17 Championship - Qualification · Round 1 - 3Stadio Fonte Dell'Ovo

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 12+ matches

Norway U1719%

×Draw19%

Italy U1762%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Norway U17Expected goals in this matchItaly U17

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.18

2.30

Norway U17

1.18

Italy U17

2.30

Italy U17 creates 95% more chances

Season form · 15 home / 12 away

1.60

creates per match

3.00

1.60

allows per match

0.75

creates per match

Norway U17

1.60

Italy U17

3.00

allows per match

Norway U17

1.60

Italy U17

0.75

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Norway U17+0.00on par

Italy U17+0.00on par

Total goals

Over67
Under33

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes62
No38

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Norway U17 ↓

Italy U17 →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–03%

0–17%

0–28%

0–36%

0–44%

1

1–04%

1–18%

1–210%

1–37%

1–44%

2

2–02%

2–15%

2–26%

2–34%

2–43%

3

3–01%

3–12%

3–22%

3–32%

3–41%

4

4–00%

4–11%

4–21%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–2 (10%) · grid covers 92% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

97%3%1.5

86%14%2.5

67%33%3.5

45%55%4.5

26%74%

Double chance

Norway U17 or draw

38%

Norway U17 or Italy U17

81%

Draw or Italy U17

81%

Winning margin

Norway U17 wins by 2+

7%

Italy U17 wins by 2+

40%

Team goals

Norway U17 1+ goals

69%

Norway U17 2+ goals

33%

Norway U17 3+ goals

12%

Italy U17 1+ goals

90%

Italy U17 2+ goals

67%

Italy U17 3+ goals

40%

Draw no bet

Norway U17 (draw refunded)

23%

Italy U17 (draw refunded)

77%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

54%

Both score & under 3

8%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Norway U17 at home — creates 1.60, concedes 1.60 · 15 matches

Italy U17 away — creates 3.00, concedes 0.75 · 12 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Norway U17 attack 1.60 + Italy U17 defence 0.75 → ÷2 → 1.18

Italy U17 attack 3.00 + Norway U17 defence 1.60 → ÷2 → 2.30

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 62%?"

Norway U17 scores more

19%

level

19%

Italy U17 scores more

62%

Italy U17 at 62% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 62% does not mean "Italy U17 will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff