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Norway U17 vs Estonia U17 — UEFA U17 Championship - Qualification 2022

Norway U17
Norway U17
FT
2 – 2
HT: 1 – 0
Estonia U17
Estonia U17
11/18/2023UEFA U17 Championship - QualificationUEFA U17 Championship - Qualification · Qualifying Round - 7Stadionul Anghel Iordănescu

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 14+ matches

Norway U1768%
×Draw17%
Estonia U1715%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Norway U17
2.62
Estonia U17
1.16

Norway U17 creates 126% more chances

Season form · 15 home / 14 away

creates per match

Norway U17
1.60
Estonia U17
0.71

allows per match

Norway U17
1.60
Estonia U17
3.64

finishing

Norway U17+0.00on par
Estonia U17+0.00on par

Total goals

72%Over
  • Over72
  • Under28

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

64%Yes
  • Yes64
  • No36

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Norway U17 ↓

Estonia U17 →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–02%
0–13%
0–22%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–06%
1–17%
1–24%
1–32%
1–40%
2
2–08%
2–19%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–07%
3–18%
3–25%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–05%
4–15%
4–23%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 2–1 (9%) · grid covers 88% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
98%2%1.5
89%11%2.5
72%28%3.5
51%49%4.5
32%68%

Double chance

Norway U17 or draw
85%
Norway U17 or Estonia U17
83%
Draw or Estonia U17
32%

Winning margin

Norway U17 wins by 2+
47%
Estonia U17 wins by 2+
5%

Team goals

Norway U17 1+ goals
93%
Norway U17 2+ goals
73%
Norway U17 3+ goals
48%
Estonia U17 1+ goals
69%
Estonia U17 2+ goals
32%
Estonia U17 3+ goals
11%

Draw no bet

Norway U17 (draw refunded)
82%
Estonia U17 (draw refunded)
18%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
56%
Both score & under 3
7%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Norway U17 at home — creates 1.60, concedes 1.60 · 15 matches

Estonia U17 away — creates 0.71, concedes 3.64 · 14 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Norway U17 attack 1.60 + Estonia U17 defence 3.64 → ÷2 → 2.62

Estonia U17 attack 0.71 + Norway U17 defence 1.60 → ÷2 → 1.16

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 68%?"

Norway U17 scores more
68%
level
17%
Estonia U17 scores more
15%

Norway U17 at 68% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 68% does not mean "Norway U17 will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

UEFA U17 Championship - Qualification: Norway U17 2–2 Estonia U17

Norway U17 and Estonia U17 drew 2-2 in UEFA U17 Championship - Qualification on November 18, 2023.

The match was played at Stadionul Anghel Iordănescu in Voluntari.