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Norton & Stockton W vs Chester-le-Street Town W — FA Women's Cup 2019

Norton & Stockton W
Norton & Stockton W
FT
2 – 1
Chester-le-Street Town W
Chester-le-Street Town W
11/12/2023FA Women's CupFA Women's Cup · 1st RoundNorton

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 3+ matches

Norton & Stockton W31%
×Draw23%
Chester-le-Street Town W47%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Norton & Stockton W
1.47
Chester-le-Street Town W
1.86

Chester-le-Street Town W creates 27% more chances

Season form · 3 home / 5 away

creates per match

Norton & Stockton W
1.33
Chester-le-Street Town W
1.40

allows per match

Norton & Stockton W
2.33
Chester-le-Street Town W
1.60

finishing

Norton & Stockton W+0.00on par
Chester-le-Street Town W+0.00on par

Total goals

65%Over
  • Over65
  • Under35

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

65%Yes
  • Yes65
  • No35

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Norton & Stockton W ↓

Chester-le-Street Town W →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–04%
0–17%
0–26%
0–34%
0–42%
1
1–05%
1–110%
1–29%
1–36%
1–43%
2
2–04%
2–17%
2–27%
2–34%
2–42%
3
3–02%
3–14%
3–23%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
96%4%1.5
84%16%2.5
65%35%3.5
42%58%4.5
24%76%

Double chance

Norton & Stockton W or draw
53%
Norton & Stockton W or Chester-le-Street Town W
77%
Draw or Chester-le-Street Town W
69%

Winning margin

Norton & Stockton W wins by 2+
14%
Chester-le-Street Town W wins by 2+
26%

Team goals

Norton & Stockton W 1+ goals
77%
Norton & Stockton W 2+ goals
43%
Norton & Stockton W 3+ goals
18%
Chester-le-Street Town W 1+ goals
84%
Chester-le-Street Town W 2+ goals
55%
Chester-le-Street Town W 3+ goals
28%

Draw no bet

Norton & Stockton W (draw refunded)
40%
Chester-le-Street Town W (draw refunded)
60%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
55%
Both score & under 3
10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Norton & Stockton W at home — creates 1.33, concedes 2.33 · 3 matches

Chester-le-Street Town W away — creates 1.40, concedes 1.60 · 5 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Norton & Stockton W attack 1.33 + Chester-le-Street Town W defence 1.60 → ÷2 → 1.47

Chester-le-Street Town W attack 1.40 + Norton & Stockton W defence 2.33 → ÷2 → 1.86

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 47%?"

Norton & Stockton W scores more
31%
level
23%
Chester-le-Street Town W scores more
47%

Chester-le-Street Town W at 47% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 47% does not mean "Chester-le-Street Town W will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Norton & Stockton W vs Chester-le-Street Town W

Norton & Stockton W beat Chester-le-Street Town W 2-1 in FA Women's Cup on November 12, 2023.

The match was played at Norton in Stockton-on-Tees, County Durham.