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Galícia vs Atlanta — Baiano - 2 2019

Galícia
Galícia
FT
0 – 2
Atlanta
Atlanta
5/4/2019Baiano - 2Baiano - 2 · Round 9Estádio Governador Roberto Santos

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 6+ matches

Galícia27%
×Draw27%
Atlanta46%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Galícia
1.03
Atlanta
1.42

Atlanta creates 38% more chances

Season form · 20 home / 6 away

creates per match

Galícia
0.90
Atlanta
1.83

allows per match

Galícia
1.00
Atlanta
1.17

finishing

Galícia+0.00on par
Atlanta+0.00on par

Total goals

56%Under
  • Under56
  • Over44

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

51%No
  • No51
  • Yes49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Galícia ↓

Atlanta →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–09%
0–112%
0–29%
0–34%
0–41%
1
1–09%
1–113%
1–29%
1–34%
1–42%
2
2–05%
2–17%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–02%
3–12%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–00%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
91%9%1.5
70%30%2.5
44%56%3.5
23%77%4.5
10%90%

Double chance

Galícia or draw
54%
Galícia or Atlanta
73%
Draw or Atlanta
73%

Winning margin

Galícia wins by 2+
10%
Atlanta wins by 2+
22%

Team goals

Galícia 1+ goals
64%
Galícia 2+ goals
28%
Galícia 3+ goals
9%
Atlanta 1+ goals
76%
Atlanta 2+ goals
41%
Atlanta 3+ goals
17%

Draw no bet

Galícia (draw refunded)
37%
Atlanta (draw refunded)
63%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
36%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Galícia at home — creates 0.90, concedes 1.00 · 20 matches

Atlanta away — creates 1.83, concedes 1.17 · 6 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Galícia attack 0.90 + Atlanta defence 1.17 → ÷2 → 1.03

Atlanta attack 1.83 + Galícia defence 1.00 → ÷2 → 1.42

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 46%?"

Galícia scores more
27%
level
27%
Atlanta scores more
46%

Atlanta at 46% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 46% does not mean "Atlanta will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Baiano - 2: Galícia 0–2 Atlanta

Atlanta beat Galícia 2-0 in Baiano - 2 on May 4, 2019.

The match was played at Estádio Governador Roberto Santos in Salvador de Bahia, Bahia.