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Northern Tigers vs Dunbar Rovers — New South Wales NPL 2 2026

Northern Tigers
Northern Tigers
FT
3 – 0
HT: 0 – 0
Dunbar Rovers
Dunbar Rovers
5/4/2024New South Wales NPL 2New South Wales NPL 2 · Round 13North Turramurra Recreation Area

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 30+ matches

Northern Tigers64%
×Draw20%
Dunbar Rovers17%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Northern Tigers
2.21
Dunbar Rovers
1.03

Northern Tigers creates 115% more chances

Season form · 77 home / 30 away

creates per match

Northern Tigers
2.05
Dunbar Rovers
0.93

allows per match

Northern Tigers
1.14
Dunbar Rovers
2.37

finishing

Northern Tigers+0.00on par
Dunbar Rovers+0.00on par

Total goals

63%Over
  • Over63
  • Under37

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

57%Yes
  • Yes57
  • No43

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Northern Tigers ↓

Dunbar Rovers →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–04%
0–14%
0–22%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–09%
1–19%
1–25%
1–32%
1–40%
2
2–010%
2–110%
2–25%
2–32%
2–40%
3
3–07%
3–17%
3–24%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–04%
4–14%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 2–0 (10%) · grid covers 93% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
96%4%1.5
83%17%2.5
63%37%3.5
40%60%4.5
22%78%

Double chance

Northern Tigers or draw
83%
Northern Tigers or Dunbar Rovers
80%
Draw or Dunbar Rovers
36%

Winning margin

Northern Tigers wins by 2+
41%
Dunbar Rovers wins by 2+
6%

Team goals

Northern Tigers 1+ goals
89%
Northern Tigers 2+ goals
65%
Northern Tigers 3+ goals
38%
Dunbar Rovers 1+ goals
64%
Dunbar Rovers 2+ goals
28%
Dunbar Rovers 3+ goals
9%

Draw no bet

Northern Tigers (draw refunded)
79%
Dunbar Rovers (draw refunded)
21%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
48%
Both score & under 3
9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Northern Tigers at home — creates 2.05, concedes 1.14 · 77 matches

Dunbar Rovers away — creates 0.93, concedes 2.37 · 30 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Northern Tigers attack 2.05 + Dunbar Rovers defence 2.37 → ÷2 → 2.21

Dunbar Rovers attack 0.93 + Northern Tigers defence 1.14 → ÷2 → 1.03

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 64%?"

Northern Tigers scores more
64%
level
20%
Dunbar Rovers scores more
17%

Northern Tigers at 64% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 64% does not mean "Northern Tigers will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

New South Wales NPL 2: Northern Tigers 3–0 Dunbar Rovers

Northern Tigers beat Dunbar Rovers 3-0 in New South Wales NPL 2 on May 4, 2024.

The match was played at North Turramurra Recreation Area in Sydney.