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Northern Tigers vs Dulwich Hill — New South Wales NPL 2 2026

Northern Tigers
Northern Tigers
FT
5 – 0
HT: 1 – 0
Dulwich Hill
Dulwich Hill
5/3/2025New South Wales NPL 2New South Wales NPL 2 · Round 13North Turramurra Recreation Area

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 57+ matches

Northern Tigers58%
×Draw21%
Dulwich Hill21%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Northern Tigers
2.14
Dulwich Hill
1.22

Northern Tigers creates 75% more chances

Season form · 77 home / 57 away

creates per match

Northern Tigers
2.05
Dulwich Hill
1.30

allows per match

Northern Tigers
1.14
Dulwich Hill
2.23

finishing

Northern Tigers+0.00on par
Dulwich Hill+0.00on par

Total goals

65%Over
  • Over65
  • Under35

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

62%Yes
  • Yes62
  • No38

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Northern Tigers ↓

Dulwich Hill →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–03%
0–14%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–07%
1–19%
1–26%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–08%
2–110%
2–26%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–06%
3–17%
3–24%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–03%
4–14%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 2–1 (10%) · grid covers 93% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
97%3%1.5
85%15%2.5
65%35%3.5
43%57%4.5
24%76%

Double chance

Northern Tigers or draw
79%
Northern Tigers or Dulwich Hill
79%
Draw or Dulwich Hill
42%

Winning margin

Northern Tigers wins by 2+
36%
Dulwich Hill wins by 2+
8%

Team goals

Northern Tigers 1+ goals
88%
Northern Tigers 2+ goals
63%
Northern Tigers 3+ goals
36%
Dulwich Hill 1+ goals
70%
Dulwich Hill 2+ goals
34%
Dulwich Hill 3+ goals
12%

Draw no bet

Northern Tigers (draw refunded)
73%
Dulwich Hill (draw refunded)
27%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
53%
Both score & under 3
9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Northern Tigers at home — creates 2.05, concedes 1.14 · 77 matches

Dulwich Hill away — creates 1.30, concedes 2.23 · 57 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Northern Tigers attack 2.05 + Dulwich Hill defence 2.23 → ÷2 → 2.14

Dulwich Hill attack 1.30 + Northern Tigers defence 1.14 → ÷2 → 1.22

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 58%?"

Northern Tigers scores more
58%
level
21%
Dulwich Hill scores more
21%

Northern Tigers at 58% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 58% does not mean "Northern Tigers will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

New South Wales NPL 2: Northern Tigers 5–0 Dulwich Hill

Northern Tigers beat Dulwich Hill 5-0 in New South Wales NPL 2 on May 3, 2025.

The match was played at North Turramurra Recreation Area in Sydney.