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Northern Tigers vs Canterbury Bankstown — New South Wales NPL 2 2026

Northern Tigers
Northern Tigers
FT
1 – 0
Canterbury Bankstown
Canterbury Bankstown
3/9/2024New South Wales NPL 2New South Wales NPL 2 · Round 5North Turramurra Recreation Area

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 57+ matches

Northern Tigers49%
×Draw23%
Canterbury Bankstown28%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Northern Tigers
1.81
Canterbury Bankstown
1.32

Northern Tigers creates 37% more chances

Season form · 77 home / 57 away

creates per match

Northern Tigers
2.05
Canterbury Bankstown
1.51

allows per match

Northern Tigers
1.14
Canterbury Bankstown
1.58

finishing

Northern Tigers+0.00on par
Canterbury Bankstown+0.00on par

Total goals

60%Over
  • Over60
  • Under40

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

61%Yes
  • Yes61
  • No39

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Northern Tigers ↓

Canterbury Bankstown →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–04%
0–16%
0–24%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–08%
1–110%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–19%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–04%
3–16%
3–24%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–02%
4–13%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
96%4%1.5
82%18%2.5
60%40%3.5
38%62%4.5
20%80%

Double chance

Northern Tigers or draw
72%
Northern Tigers or Canterbury Bankstown
77%
Draw or Canterbury Bankstown
51%

Winning margin

Northern Tigers wins by 2+
27%
Canterbury Bankstown wins by 2+
12%

Team goals

Northern Tigers 1+ goals
84%
Northern Tigers 2+ goals
54%
Northern Tigers 3+ goals
27%
Canterbury Bankstown 1+ goals
73%
Canterbury Bankstown 2+ goals
38%
Canterbury Bankstown 3+ goals
15%

Draw no bet

Northern Tigers (draw refunded)
64%
Canterbury Bankstown (draw refunded)
36%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
51%
Both score & under 3
10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Northern Tigers at home — creates 2.05, concedes 1.14 · 77 matches

Canterbury Bankstown away — creates 1.51, concedes 1.58 · 57 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Northern Tigers attack 2.05 + Canterbury Bankstown defence 1.58 → ÷2 → 1.81

Canterbury Bankstown attack 1.51 + Northern Tigers defence 1.14 → ÷2 → 1.32

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 49%?"

Northern Tigers scores more
49%
level
23%
Canterbury Bankstown scores more
28%

Northern Tigers at 49% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 49% does not mean "Northern Tigers will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

New South Wales NPL 2: Northern Tigers 1–0 Canterbury Bankstown

Northern Tigers beat Canterbury Bankstown 1-0 in New South Wales NPL 2 on March 9, 2024.

The match was played at North Turramurra Recreation Area in Sydney.