Northern Tigers 1–0 Bonnyrigg White Eagles

Northern Tigers

FT

1 – 0

Bonnyrigg White Eagles

2/28/2024

New South Wales NPL 2 · Round 3North Turramurra Recreation Area

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 62+ matches

Northern Tigers55%

×Draw22%

Bonnyrigg White Eagles23%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Northern TigersExpected goals in this matchBonnyrigg White Eagles

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

2.01

1.23

Northern Tigers

2.01

Bonnyrigg White Eagles

1.23

Northern Tigers creates 63% more chances

Season form · 77 home / 62 away

2.05

creates per match

1.31

1.14

allows per match

1.98

creates per match

Northern Tigers

2.05

Bonnyrigg White Eagles

1.31

allows per match

Northern Tigers

1.14

Bonnyrigg White Eagles

1.98

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Northern Tigers+0.00on par

Bonnyrigg White Eagles+0.00on par

Total goals

Over63
Under37

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes61
No39

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Northern Tigers ↓

Bonnyrigg White Eagles →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–04%

0–15%

0–23%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–08%

1–110%

1–26%

1–32%

1–41%

2

2–08%

2–110%

2–26%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–05%

3–17%

3–24%

3–32%

3–41%

4

4–03%

4–13%

4–22%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 94% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

96%4%1.5

83%17%2.5

63%37%3.5

40%60%4.5

22%78%

Double chance

Northern Tigers or draw

77%

Northern Tigers or Bonnyrigg White Eagles

78%

Draw or Bonnyrigg White Eagles

45%

Winning margin

Northern Tigers wins by 2+

33%

Bonnyrigg White Eagles wins by 2+

9%

Team goals

Northern Tigers 1+ goals

87%

Northern Tigers 2+ goals

59%

Northern Tigers 3+ goals

32%

Bonnyrigg White Eagles 1+ goals

71%

Bonnyrigg White Eagles 2+ goals

35%

Bonnyrigg White Eagles 3+ goals

13%

Draw no bet

Northern Tigers (draw refunded)

70%

Bonnyrigg White Eagles (draw refunded)

30%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

52%

Both score & under 3

10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Northern Tigers at home — creates 2.05, concedes 1.14 · 77 matches

Bonnyrigg White Eagles away — creates 1.31, concedes 1.98 · 62 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Northern Tigers attack 2.05 + Bonnyrigg White Eagles defence 1.98 → ÷2 → 2.01

Bonnyrigg White Eagles attack 1.31 + Northern Tigers defence 1.14 → ÷2 → 1.23

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 55%?"

Northern Tigers scores more

55%

level

22%

Bonnyrigg White Eagles scores more

23%

Northern Tigers at 55% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 55% does not mean "Northern Tigers will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff