Northern Rangers 7–1 Launceston United U21

Northern Rangers

FT

7 – 1

HT: 2 – 0

Launceston United U21

5/10/2025

Tasmania Northern Championship · Round 7NTCA Ground

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 26+ matches

Northern Rangers95%

×Draw3%

Launceston United U211%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Northern RangersExpected goals in this matchLaunceston United U21

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

5.76

0.80

Northern Rangers

5.76

Launceston United U21

0.80

Northern Rangers creates 620% more chances

Season form · 26 home / 28 away

5.73

creates per match

0.79

0.81

allows per match

5.79

creates per match

Northern Rangers

5.73

Launceston United U21

0.79

allows per match

Northern Rangers

0.81

Launceston United U21

5.79

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Northern Rangers+0.00on par

Launceston United U21+0.00on par

Total goals

Over94
Under6

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes55
No45

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Northern Rangers ↓

Launceston United U21 →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–00%

0–10%

0–20%

0–30%

0–40%

1

1–01%

1–11%

1–20%

1–30%

1–40%

2

2–04%

2–13%

2–21%

2–30%

2–40%

3

3–07%

3–16%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–010%

4–18%

4–23%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 4–0 (10%) · grid covers 49% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

100%0%1.5

98%2%2.5

94%6%3.5

83%17%4.5

66%34%

Double chance

Northern Rangers or draw

99%

Northern Rangers or Launceston United U21

97%

Draw or Launceston United U21

5%

Winning margin

Northern Rangers wins by 2+

88%

Launceston United U21 wins by 2+

0%

Team goals

Northern Rangers 1+ goals

100%

Northern Rangers 2+ goals

97%

Northern Rangers 3+ goals

89%

Launceston United U21 1+ goals

55%

Launceston United U21 2+ goals

19%

Launceston United U21 3+ goals

5%

Draw no bet

Northern Rangers (draw refunded)

99%

Launceston United U21 (draw refunded)

1%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

54%

Both score & under 3

1%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Northern Rangers at home — creates 5.73, concedes 0.81 · 26 matches

Launceston United U21 away — creates 0.79, concedes 5.79 · 28 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Northern Rangers attack 5.73 + Launceston United U21 defence 5.79 → ÷2 → 5.76

Launceston United U21 attack 0.79 + Northern Rangers defence 0.81 → ÷2 → 0.80

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 95%?"

Northern Rangers scores more

95%

level

3%

Launceston United U21 scores more

1%

Northern Rangers at 95% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 95% does not mean "Northern Rangers will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff