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Northern Rangers vs Launceston U21 — Tasmania Northern Championship 2026

Northern Rangers
Northern Rangers
FT
2 – 2
HT: 1 – 2
Launceston U21
Launceston U21
5/3/2025Tasmania Northern ChampionshipTasmania Northern Championship · Round 6NTCA Ground

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 26+ matches

Northern Rangers84%
×Draw9%
Launceston U217%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Northern Rangers
4.29
Launceston U21
1.28

Northern Rangers creates 235% more chances

Season form · 26 home / 28 away

creates per match

Northern Rangers
5.73
Launceston U21
1.75

allows per match

Northern Rangers
0.81
Launceston U21
2.86

finishing

Northern Rangers+0.00on par
Launceston U21+0.00on par

Total goals

90%Over
  • Over90
  • Under10

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

71%Yes
  • Yes71
  • No29

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Northern Rangers ↓

Launceston U21 →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–00%
0–11%
0–20%
0–30%
0–40%
1
1–02%
1–12%
1–22%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–04%
2–15%
2–23%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–06%
3–17%
3–25%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–06%
4–18%
4–25%
4–32%
4–41%

Most likely 4–1 (8%) · grid covers 66% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
100%0%1.5
97%3%2.5
90%10%3.5
77%23%4.5
60%40%

Double chance

Northern Rangers or draw
93%
Northern Rangers or Launceston U21
91%
Draw or Launceston U21
16%

Winning margin

Northern Rangers wins by 2+
69%
Launceston U21 wins by 2+
2%

Team goals

Northern Rangers 1+ goals
98%
Northern Rangers 2+ goals
92%
Northern Rangers 3+ goals
77%
Launceston U21 1+ goals
72%
Launceston U21 2+ goals
37%
Launceston U21 3+ goals
14%

Draw no bet

Northern Rangers (draw refunded)
93%
Launceston U21 (draw refunded)
7%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
69%
Both score & under 3
2%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Northern Rangers at home — creates 5.73, concedes 0.81 · 26 matches

Launceston U21 away — creates 1.75, concedes 2.86 · 28 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Northern Rangers attack 5.73 + Launceston U21 defence 2.86 → ÷2 → 4.29

Launceston U21 attack 1.75 + Northern Rangers defence 0.81 → ÷2 → 1.28

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 84%?"

Northern Rangers scores more
84%
level
9%
Launceston U21 scores more
7%

Northern Rangers at 84% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 84% does not mean "Northern Rangers will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Tasmania Northern Championship: Northern Rangers 2–2 Launceston U21

Northern Rangers and Launceston U21 drew 2-2 in Tasmania Northern Championship on May 3, 2025.

The match was played at NTCA Ground in Launceston.