Northern Ireland 1–1 Switzerland: Result & Stats

Northern Ireland

FT

1 – 1

HT: 1 – 1

Switzerland

Isaac Price 16'

Vincent Sierro 28'

3/21/2025

Friendlies · Friendlies 1Windsor Park

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 9+ matches

Northern Ireland42%

×Draw31%

Switzerland28%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 580,715 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.3% correct · Away picks 48.9% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Northern IrelandExpected goals in this matchSwitzerland

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.13

0.86

Northern Ireland

1.13

Switzerland

0.86

Northern Ireland creates 31% more chances

Season form · 9 home / 12 away

1.33

creates per match

1.17

0.56

allows per match

0.92

creates per match

Northern Ireland

1.33

Switzerland

1.17

allows per match

Northern Ireland

0.56

Switzerland

0.92

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Northern Ireland+0.00on par

Switzerland+0.00on par

Total goals

Under68
Over32

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No61
Yes39

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Northern Ireland ↓

Switzerland →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–014%

0–112%

0–25%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–015%

1–113%

1–26%

1–32%

1–40%

2

2–09%

2–18%

2–23%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–03%

3–13%

3–21%

3–30%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–20%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (15%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

86%14%1.5

59%41%2.5

32%68%3.5

14%86%4.5

5%95%

Double chance

Northern Ireland or draw

72%

Northern Ireland or Switzerland

69%

Draw or Switzerland

58%

Winning margin

Northern Ireland wins by 2+

17%

Switzerland wins by 2+

9%

Team goals

Northern Ireland 1+ goals

68%

Northern Ireland 2+ goals

31%

Northern Ireland 3+ goals

11%

Switzerland 1+ goals

58%

Switzerland 2+ goals

21%

Switzerland 3+ goals

6%

Draw no bet

Northern Ireland (draw refunded)

60%

Switzerland (draw refunded)

40%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

26%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Northern Ireland at home — creates 1.33, concedes 0.56 · 9 matches

Switzerland away — creates 1.17, concedes 0.92 · 12 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Northern Ireland attack 1.33 + Switzerland defence 0.92 → ÷2 → 1.13

Switzerland attack 1.17 + Northern Ireland defence 0.56 → ÷2 → 0.86

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 42%?"

Northern Ireland scores more

42%

level

31%

Switzerland scores more

28%

Northern Ireland at 42% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 42% does not mean "Northern Ireland will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

10

Vincent Sierro

Switzerland · M

8.0

Match Events

5'

Lee Bonis

15'

Stefan Gartenmann

16'

Isaac Price↳ George Saville

28'

Vincent Sierro↳ Ricardo Rodríguez

36'

Ruben Vargas

40'

Paul Smyth

56'

Dale Taylor← Lee Bonis

57'

Jamie Donley← Paul Smyth

59'

Fabian Rieder← Michel Aebischer

59'

Andi Zeqiri← Ruben Vargas

60'

Joël Monteiro← Breel Embolo

68'

Lucas Blondel← Isaac Schmidt

68'

Alvyn Sanches← Dan Ndoye

69'

Justin Devenny← George Saville

75'

Terry Devlin← Ethan Galbraith

88'

Djibril Sow← Vincent Sierro

90+3'

Denis Zakaria

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

NorthernSwitzerland

Overview

20%Possession80%

9Total Shots6

3Corners7

12Fouls14

Shots

9Total Shots6

3On Target2

3Off Target0

3Blocked4

7Inside Box4

2Outside Box2

Passing

20%Possession80%

170Total Passes718

116Accurate Passes647

68%Pass Accuracy90%

Goalkeeping

1Saves2

Discipline

12Fouls14

2Yellow Cards3

1Offsides1