Northern Ireland 1–1 Slovakia: Result & Stats

Northern Ireland

AET

1 – 1

HT: 0 – 1

Slovakia

M. Skriniar 88' (OG)

M. Duris 110'

J. Kucka 17'

11/12/2020

Euro Championship · Qualifying Play-offs Path B - FinalWindsor Park

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 4+ matches

Northern Ireland28%

×Draw29%

Slovakia43%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.2%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Northern IrelandExpected goals in this matchSlovakia

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

0.92

1.21

Northern Ireland

0.92

Slovakia

1.21

Slovakia creates 32% more chances

Season form · 4 home / 6 away

1.00

creates per match

1.67

0.75

allows per match

0.83

creates per match

Northern Ireland

1.00

Slovakia

1.67

allows per match

Northern Ireland

0.75

Slovakia

0.83

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Northern Ireland+0.00on par

Slovakia+0.00on par

Total goals

Under64
Over36

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No58
Yes42

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Northern Ireland ↓

Slovakia →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–012%

0–114%

0–29%

0–34%

0–41%

1

1–011%

1–113%

1–28%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–05%

2–16%

2–24%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–02%

3–12%

3–21%

3–30%

3–40%

4

4–00%

4–10%

4–20%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 0–1 (14%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

88%12%1.5

63%37%2.5

36%64%3.5

17%83%4.5

6%94%

Double chance

Northern Ireland or draw

57%

Northern Ireland or Slovakia

71%

Draw or Slovakia

72%

Winning margin

Northern Ireland wins by 2+

10%

Slovakia wins by 2+

19%

Team goals

Northern Ireland 1+ goals

60%

Northern Ireland 2+ goals

23%

Northern Ireland 3+ goals

7%

Slovakia 1+ goals

70%

Slovakia 2+ goals

34%

Slovakia 3+ goals

12%

Draw no bet

Northern Ireland (draw refunded)

40%

Slovakia (draw refunded)

60%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

29%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Northern Ireland at home — creates 1.00, concedes 0.75 · 4 matches

Slovakia away — creates 1.67, concedes 0.83 · 6 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Northern Ireland attack 1.00 + Slovakia defence 0.83 → ÷2 → 0.92

Slovakia attack 1.67 + Northern Ireland defence 0.75 → ÷2 → 1.21

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 43%?"

Northern Ireland scores more

28%

level

29%

Slovakia scores more

43%

Slovakia at 43% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 43% does not mean "Slovakia will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

19

Juraj Kucka

Slovakia · M

7.6

Match Events

17'

J. Kucka

65'

R. Mak← M. Duris

65'

S. Lobotka← P. Hrosovsky

65'

G. Saville← J. Thompson

66'

C. Washington← G. Whyte

66'

O. Duda

77'

N. McGinn← K. Lafferty

77'

J. Magennis← L. Boyce

85'

O. Duda← S. Mraz

88'

M. SkriniarOwn goal

99'

C. Cathcart← T. Flanagan

104'

P. McNair← S. Ferguson

106'

110'

117'

117'

118'

A. Rusnak← N. Gyomber

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

NorthernSlovakia

Overview

46%Possession54%

16Total Shots8

6Corners1

13Fouls11

Shots

16Total Shots8

3On Target3

9Off Target3

4Blocked2

9Inside Box6

7Outside Box2

Passing

46%Possession54%

556Total Passes681

432Accurate Passes558

78%Pass Accuracy82%

Goalkeeping

1Saves3

Discipline

13Fouls11

1Yellow Cards2

2Offsides1