Northern Ireland 1–0 Iceland: Result & Stats

Northern Ireland

FT

1 – 0

HT: 1 – 0

Iceland

Isaac Price 36'

6/10/2025

Friendlies · Friendlies 1Windsor Park

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 9+ matches

Northern Ireland55%

×Draw27%

Iceland19%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.4%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 578,261 matches, vs 44.4% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50% correct · Away picks 48.9% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Northern IrelandExpected goals in this matchIceland

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.45

0.72

Northern Ireland

1.45

Iceland

0.72

Northern Ireland creates 101% more chances

Season form · 9 home / 25 away

1.33

creates per match

0.88

0.56

allows per match

1.56

creates per match

Northern Ireland

1.33

Iceland

0.88

allows per match

Northern Ireland

0.56

Iceland

1.56

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Northern Ireland+0.00on par

Iceland+0.00on par

Total goals

Under63
Over37

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No61
Yes39

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Northern Ireland ↓

Iceland →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–011%

0–18%

0–23%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–017%

1–112%

1–24%

1–31%

1–40%

2

2–012%

2–19%

2–23%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–06%

3–14%

3–22%

3–30%

3–40%

4

4–02%

4–12%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (17%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

89%11%1.5

64%36%2.5

37%63%3.5

17%83%4.5

7%93%

Double chance

Northern Ireland or draw

81%

Northern Ireland or Iceland

73%

Draw or Iceland

45%

Winning margin

Northern Ireland wins by 2+

28%

Iceland wins by 2+

5%

Team goals

Northern Ireland 1+ goals

77%

Northern Ireland 2+ goals

42%

Northern Ireland 3+ goals

18%

Iceland 1+ goals

51%

Iceland 2+ goals

16%

Iceland 3+ goals

4%

Draw no bet

Northern Ireland (draw refunded)

75%

Iceland (draw refunded)

25%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

27%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Northern Ireland at home — creates 1.33, concedes 0.56 · 9 matches

Iceland away — creates 0.88, concedes 1.56 · 25 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Northern Ireland attack 1.33 + Iceland defence 1.56 → ÷2 → 1.45

Iceland attack 0.88 + Northern Ireland defence 0.56 → ÷2 → 0.72

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 55%?"

Northern Ireland scores more

55%

level

27%

Iceland scores more

19%

Northern Ireland at 55% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 55% does not mean "Northern Ireland will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

14

Isaac Price

Northern Ireland · F

7.9

Match Events

36'

Isaac Price↳ George Saville

40'

Willum Thor Willumsson

46'

Ethan Galbraith← Paul Smyth

46'

Ísak Bergmann Jóhannesson← Arnór Traustason

57'

Brodie Spencer

62'

Mikael Anderson← Willum Thor Willumsson

63'

Kristian Hlynsson← Jón Dagur Þórsteinsson

63'

Þórir Jóhann Helgason← Daníel Grétarsson

68'

Ruairi McConville← George Saville

68'

Lee Bonis← Ronan Hale

73'

Sævar Atli Magnússon← Albert Guðmundsson

84'

Hakon Arnar Haraldsson

86'

Stefán Teitur Þórðarson← Logi Tomasson

90'

Terry Devlin← Conor Bradley

90'

Bradley Lyons← Isaac Price

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

NorthernIceland

Overview

34%Possession66%

13Total Shots10

4Corners7

12Fouls17

Shots

13Total Shots10

1On Target3

8Off Target4

4Blocked3

11Inside Box7

2Outside Box3

Passing

34%Possession66%

258Total Passes520

184Accurate Passes455

71%Pass Accuracy88%

Goalkeeping

2Saves0

Discipline

12Fouls17

0Yellow Cards2

1Red Cards0

4Offsides1