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Northern Ireland vs Hungary — UEFA Nations League 2018

Northern Ireland
Northern Ireland
Preview
18:45
Hungary
Hungary
9/28/2026UEFA Nations LeagueUEFA Nations League · 2
Big match
45%
Northern Ireland
model favours
45%25%30%

Top-of-the-table clash — Northern Ireland 1 vs Hungary 3

brightest fact of this match

1–1
likely score
53%
over 2.5 goals
56%
both teams score

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 10+ matches

Northern Ireland45%
×Draw25%
Hungary30%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.2%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Northern Ireland
1.58
Hungary
1.24

Northern Ireland creates 27% more chances

Season form · 10 home / 13 away

creates per match

Northern Ireland
1.70
Hungary
1.08

allows per match

Northern Ireland
1.40
Hungary
1.46

finishing

Northern Ireland+0.00on par
Hungary+0.00on par

Total goals

53%Over
  • Over53
  • Under47

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

56%Yes
  • Yes56
  • No44

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Northern Ireland ↓

Hungary →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–06%
0–17%
0–25%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–09%
1–112%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–19%
2–26%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–04%
3–15%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
94%6%1.5
77%23%2.5
53%47%3.5
31%69%4.5
15%85%

Double chance

Northern Ireland or draw
70%
Northern Ireland or Hungary
75%
Draw or Hungary
55%

Winning margin

Northern Ireland wins by 2+
23%
Hungary wins by 2+
13%

Team goals

Northern Ireland 1+ goals
79%
Northern Ireland 2+ goals
47%
Northern Ireland 3+ goals
21%
Hungary 1+ goals
71%
Hungary 2+ goals
35%
Hungary 3+ goals
13%

Draw no bet

Northern Ireland (draw refunded)
60%
Hungary (draw refunded)
40%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
45%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Northern Ireland at home — creates 1.70, concedes 1.40 · 10 matches

Hungary away — creates 1.08, concedes 1.46 · 13 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Northern Ireland attack 1.70 + Hungary defence 1.46 → ÷2 → 1.58

Hungary attack 1.08 + Northern Ireland defence 1.40 → ÷2 → 1.24

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 45%?"

Northern Ireland scores more
45%
level
25%
Hungary scores more
30%

Northern Ireland at 45% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 45% does not mean "Northern Ireland will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Style Matchup

Contrasting styles
Northern Ireland
Balanced
Hungary
Direct / counter-attacking
47%Possession42%
78%Pass accuracy77%
9.4ShotsBiggest gap10.8
—xG—
Pass acc.ShotsxGBox shareShot acc.Defense
Northern IrelandHungary

Playing styles from match stats. Historical H2H record. Not a prediction.

Form
Ireland
LWDLL
Hungary
WWDWL

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Preview: Northern Ireland host Hungary

September 28, 2026: Northern Ireland take on Hungary in UEFA Nations League. Track every goal, card, and substitution live on Scoreo as the action unfolds.

Submit your prediction below — exact score, 1X2, total goals, and both teams to score. Earn XP for correct picks.