Northern Ireland 0–1 Hungary: Result & Stats

Northern Ireland

FT

0 – 1

HT: 0 – 0

Hungary

R. Sallai 55'

3/29/2022

Friendlies · Friendlies 1Windsor Park

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 6+ matches

Northern Ireland45%

×Draw28%

Hungary27%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.2%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Northern IrelandExpected goals in this matchHungary

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.33

0.95

Northern Ireland

1.33

Hungary

0.95

Northern Ireland creates 40% more chances

Season form · 9 home / 6 away

1.33

creates per match

1.33

0.56

allows per match

1.33

creates per match

Northern Ireland

1.33

Hungary

1.33

allows per match

Northern Ireland

0.56

Hungary

1.33

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Northern Ireland+0.00on par

Hungary+0.00on par

Total goals

Under60
Over40

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No55
Yes45

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Northern Ireland ↓

Hungary →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–010%

0–110%

0–25%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–014%

1–113%

1–26%

1–32%

1–40%

2

2–09%

2–19%

2–24%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–04%

3–14%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (14%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

90%10%1.5

66%34%2.5

40%60%3.5

20%80%4.5

8%92%

Double chance

Northern Ireland or draw

73%

Northern Ireland or Hungary

72%

Draw or Hungary

55%

Winning margin

Northern Ireland wins by 2+

21%

Hungary wins by 2+

9%

Team goals

Northern Ireland 1+ goals

74%

Northern Ireland 2+ goals

38%

Northern Ireland 3+ goals

15%

Hungary 1+ goals

61%

Hungary 2+ goals

25%

Hungary 3+ goals

7%

Draw no bet

Northern Ireland (draw refunded)

63%

Hungary (draw refunded)

37%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

32%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Northern Ireland at home — creates 1.33, concedes 0.56 · 9 matches

Hungary away — creates 1.33, concedes 1.33 · 6 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Northern Ireland attack 1.33 + Hungary defence 1.33 → ÷2 → 1.33

Hungary attack 1.33 + Northern Ireland defence 0.56 → ÷2 → 0.95

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 45%?"

Northern Ireland scores more

45%

level

28%

Hungary scores more

27%

Northern Ireland at 45% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 45% does not mean "Northern Ireland will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

27'

Craig Cathcart

46'

D. Charles← J. Magennis

55'

55'

58'

61'

61'

66'

Á. Nagy← D. Szoboszlai

68'

S. Lavery← N. McGinn

68'

J. Thompson← G. Whyte

72'

73'

74'

82'

82'

82'

83'

85'

85'

86'

Possession

Shots

Statistics

NorthernHungary

Overview

42%Possession58%

8Total Shots6

3Corners3

13Fouls17

Shots

8Total Shots6

3On Target3

5Off Target3

Passing

42%Possession58%

Goalkeeping

2Saves3

Discipline

13Fouls17

4Yellow Cards3

0Red Cards0

2Offsides3

Match Recap: Northern Ireland vs Hungary

Hungary beat Northern Ireland 1-0 in Friendlies on March 29, 2022.

Goals: R. Sallai (55').

Hungary controlled possession (58%) and registered 6 shots to 8.

The match was played at Windsor Park in Belfast.

Northern Ireland vs Hungary — Friendlies 2026

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Total goals

Both teams score

Match Events

Head to Head

Possession

Shots

Statistics

Match Recap: Northern Ireland vs Hungary