Northern Ireland 2–2 Cyprus: Result & Stats

Northern Ireland

FT

2 – 2

HT: 0 – 1

Cyprus

J. Evans 90+3'

P. McNair 71'

A. Kakoullis 51', 32'

6/12/2022

UEFA Nations League · League C - 4Windsor Park

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 10+ matches

Northern Ireland59%

×Draw22%

Cyprus19%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.2%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Northern IrelandExpected goals in this matchCyprus

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.92

0.97

Northern Ireland

1.92

Cyprus

0.97

Northern Ireland creates 98% more chances

Season form · 10 home / 13 away

1.70

creates per match

0.54

1.40

allows per match

2.15

creates per match

Northern Ireland

1.70

Cyprus

0.54

allows per match

Northern Ireland

1.40

Cyprus

2.15

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Northern Ireland+0.00on par

Cyprus+0.00on par

Total goals

Over55
Under45

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes53
No47

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Northern Ireland ↓

Cyprus →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–06%

0–15%

0–23%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–011%

1–110%

1–25%

1–32%

1–40%

2

2–010%

2–110%

2–25%

2–32%

2–40%

3

3–07%

3–16%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–03%

4–13%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (11%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

94%6%1.5

78%22%2.5

55%45%3.5

33%67%4.5

16%84%

Double chance

Northern Ireland or draw

81%

Northern Ireland or Cyprus

78%

Draw or Cyprus

41%

Winning margin

Northern Ireland wins by 2+

35%

Cyprus wins by 2+

6%

Team goals

Northern Ireland 1+ goals

85%

Northern Ireland 2+ goals

57%

Northern Ireland 3+ goals

30%

Cyprus 1+ goals

62%

Cyprus 2+ goals

25%

Cyprus 3+ goals

7%

Draw no bet

Northern Ireland (draw refunded)

76%

Cyprus (draw refunded)

24%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

43%

Both score & under 3

10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Northern Ireland at home — creates 1.70, concedes 1.40 · 10 matches

Cyprus away — creates 0.54, concedes 2.15 · 13 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Northern Ireland attack 1.70 + Cyprus defence 2.15 → ÷2 → 1.92

Cyprus attack 0.54 + Northern Ireland defence 1.40 → ÷2 → 0.97

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 59%?"

Northern Ireland scores more

59%

level

22%

Cyprus scores more

19%

Northern Ireland at 59% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 59% does not mean "Northern Ireland will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

14

A. Kakoullis

Cyprus · F

8.3

Match Events

32'

A. Kakoullis↳ C. Kyriakou

46'

A. Panagiotou Filiotis← I. Pittas

51'

A. Kakoullis↳ M. Tzionis

58'

F. Papoulis← M. Tzionis

59'

J. Thompson← S. Charles

59'

G. Whyte← S. Lavery

68'

Steven Davis

68'

Konstantinos Laifis

69'

D. Charles← K. Lafferty

69'

N. McGinn← C. McMenamin

69'

C. Bradley← B. Spencer

69'

N. Ioannou← K. Laifis

71'

P. McNair

78'

F. Katelaris← A. Kakoullis

90+3'

J. Evans↳ D. Charles

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

NorthernCyprus

Overview

60%Possession40%

19Total Shots6

4Corners0

9Fouls5

Shots

19Total Shots6

7On Target2

10Off Target2

2Blocked2

14Inside Box3

5Outside Box3

Passing

60%Possession40%

539Total Passes370

430Accurate Passes259

80%Pass Accuracy70%

Goalkeeping

0Saves5

Discipline

9Fouls5

1Yellow Cards1

0Offsides2