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Northern Ireland vs Bulgaria — UEFA Nations League 2018

Northern Ireland
Northern Ireland
FT
5 – 0
HT: 3 – 0
Bulgaria
Bulgaria
10/15/2024UEFA Nations LeagueUEFA Nations League · League C - 4Windsor Park

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 11+ matches

Northern Ireland45%
×Draw27%
Bulgaria28%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 580,715 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.3% correct · Away picks 48.9% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Northern Ireland
1.36
Bulgaria
1.00

Northern Ireland creates 36% more chances

Season form · 11 home / 11 away

creates per match

Northern Ireland
1.55
Bulgaria
0.64

allows per match

Northern Ireland
1.36
Bulgaria
1.18

finishing

Northern Ireland+0.00on par
Bulgaria+0.00on par

Total goals

58%Under
  • Under58
  • Over42

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

53%No
  • No53
  • Yes47

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Northern Ireland ↓

Bulgaria →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–09%
0–19%
0–25%
0–32%
0–40%
1
1–013%
1–113%
1–26%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–09%
2–19%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–04%
3–14%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
91%9%1.5
68%32%2.5
42%58%3.5
21%79%4.5
9%91%

Double chance

Northern Ireland or draw
72%
Northern Ireland or Bulgaria
73%
Draw or Bulgaria
55%

Winning margin

Northern Ireland wins by 2+
21%
Bulgaria wins by 2+
10%

Team goals

Northern Ireland 1+ goals
74%
Northern Ireland 2+ goals
39%
Northern Ireland 3+ goals
16%
Bulgaria 1+ goals
63%
Bulgaria 2+ goals
26%
Bulgaria 3+ goals
8%

Draw no bet

Northern Ireland (draw refunded)
62%
Bulgaria (draw refunded)
38%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
34%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Northern Ireland at home — creates 1.55, concedes 1.36 · 11 matches

Bulgaria away — creates 0.64, concedes 1.18 · 11 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Northern Ireland attack 1.55 + Bulgaria defence 1.18 → ÷2 → 1.36

Bulgaria attack 0.64 + Northern Ireland defence 1.36 → ÷2 → 1.00

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 45%?"

Northern Ireland scores more
45%
level
27%
Bulgaria scores more
28%

Northern Ireland at 45% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 45% does not mean "Northern Ireland will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

UEFA Nations League: Northern Ireland 5–0 Bulgaria

Northern Ireland beat Bulgaria 5-0 in UEFA Nations League on October 15, 2024.

The match was played at Windsor Park in Belfast.