Northern Ireland 2–0 Andorra: Result & Stats

Northern Ireland

FT

2 – 0

HT: 2 – 0

Andorra

C. Bradley 22', 16'

6/11/2024

Friendlies · Friendlies 1Estadio Enrique Roca de Murcia

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 9+ matches

Northern Ireland72%

×Draw21%

Andorra6%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.4%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 578,261 matches, vs 44.4% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50% correct · Away picks 48.9% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Northern IrelandExpected goals in this matchAndorra

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.71

0.32

Northern Ireland

1.71

Andorra

0.32

Northern Ireland creates 434% more chances

Season form · 9 home / 13 away

1.33

creates per match

0.08

0.56

allows per match

2.08

creates per match

Northern Ireland

1.33

Andorra

0.08

allows per match

Northern Ireland

0.56

Andorra

2.08

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Northern Ireland+0.00on par

Andorra+0.00on par

Total goals

Under67
Over33

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No78
Yes22

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Northern Ireland ↓

Andorra →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–013%

0–14%

0–21%

0–30%

0–40%

1

1–023%

1–17%

1–21%

1–30%

1–40%

2

2–019%

2–16%

2–21%

2–30%

2–40%

3

3–011%

3–14%

3–21%

3–30%

3–40%

4

4–05%

4–12%

4–20%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (23%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

87%13%1.5

60%40%2.5

33%67%3.5

15%85%4.5

5%95%

Double chance

Northern Ireland or draw

94%

Northern Ireland or Andorra

79%

Draw or Andorra

28%

Winning margin

Northern Ireland wins by 2+

43%

Andorra wins by 2+

1%

Team goals

Northern Ireland 1+ goals

82%

Northern Ireland 2+ goals

51%

Northern Ireland 3+ goals

24%

Andorra 1+ goals

27%

Andorra 2+ goals

4%

Andorra 3+ goals

0%

Draw no bet

Northern Ireland (draw refunded)

92%

Andorra (draw refunded)

8%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

15%

Both score & under 3

7%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Northern Ireland at home — creates 1.33, concedes 0.56 · 9 matches

Andorra away — creates 0.08, concedes 2.08 · 13 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Northern Ireland attack 1.33 + Andorra defence 2.08 → ÷2 → 1.71

Andorra attack 0.08 + Northern Ireland defence 0.56 → ÷2 → 0.32

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 72%?"

Northern Ireland scores more

72%

level

21%

Andorra scores more

6%

Northern Ireland at 72% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 72% does not mean "Northern Ireland will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

2

C. Bradley

Northern Ireland · M

8.9

Match Events

16'

C. Bradley↳ C. Marshall

22'

28'

42'

45'

53'

60'

60'

D. Taylor← C. Marshall

61'

E. Galbraith← P. Smyth

69'

R. McCausland← C. Evans

69'

A. Donnelly← C. Brown

69'

João Teixeira← Márcio Vieira

69'

Joel Guillén← Marc Rebés

69'

Marc Pujol← Izan Fernández

71'

Marc Pujol

76'

C. Boyd-Munce← C. Bradley

77'

Aaron Donnelly

87'

Xisco Pires← Iker Álvarez

87'

Jordi Rubio← Dacu

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

NorthernAndorra

Overview

75%Possession25%

16Total Shots2

8Corners0

12Fouls22

Shots

16Total Shots2

6On Target0

4Off Target2

6Blocked0

13Inside Box0

3Outside Box2

Passing

75%Possession25%

548Total Passes187

484Accurate Passes111

88%Pass Accuracy59%

Goalkeeping

0Saves3

Discipline

12Fouls22

2Yellow Cards3

1Offsides2