Northern Ireland U21 0–2 Malta U21: Result & Stats

Northern Ireland U21

0 – 2

HT: 0 – 0

Malta U21

A. Zammit 89'

M. Grima 49'

11/16/2021

League #850 · Group C - 16Mourneview Park

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 3+ matches

Northern Ireland U2165%

×Draw22%

Malta U2113%

✓ Correct in 49 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

48.6%

Always home

43.8%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 48.6% correct across 15,072 matches, vs 43.8% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.1% correct · Away picks 45.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Northern Ireland U21Expected goals in this matchMalta U21

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.83

0.67

Northern Ireland U21

1.83

Malta U21

0.67

Northern Ireland U21 creates 173% more chances

Season form · 3 home / 3 away

1.00

creates per match

0.67

allows per match

2.67

creates per match

Northern Ireland U21

1.00

Malta U21

0.67

allows per match

Northern Ireland U21

0.67

Malta U21

2.67

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Northern Ireland U21+0.00on par

Malta U21+0.00on par

Total goals

Under55
Over45

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No59
Yes41

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Northern Ireland U21 ↓

Malta U21 →

0–08%

0–16%

0–22%

0–30%

0–40%

1–015%

1–110%

1–23%

1–31%

1–40%

2–014%

2–19%

2–23%

2–31%

2–40%

3–08%

3–16%

3–22%

3–30%

3–40%

4–04%

4–13%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (15%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

92%8%1.5

71%29%2.5

45%55%3.5

24%76%4.5

11%89%

Double chance

Northern Ireland U21 or draw

87%

Northern Ireland U21 or Malta U21

78%

Draw or Malta U21

35%

Winning margin

Northern Ireland U21 wins by 2+

39%

Malta U21 wins by 2+

Team goals

Northern Ireland U21 1+ goals

84%

Northern Ireland U21 2+ goals

54%

Northern Ireland U21 3+ goals

28%

Malta U21 1+ goals

49%

Malta U21 2+ goals

15%

Malta U21 3+ goals

Draw no bet

Northern Ireland U21 (draw refunded)

83%

Malta U21 (draw refunded)

17%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

31%

Both score & under 3

10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

Recent form of each side

Northern Ireland U21 at home — creates 1.00, concedes 0.67 · 3 matches

Malta U21 away — creates 0.67, concedes 2.67 · 3 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

Expected goals for this match

Northern Ireland U21 attack 1.00 + Malta U21 defence 2.67 → ÷2 → 1.83

Malta U21 attack 0.67 + Northern Ireland U21 defence 0.67 → ÷2 → 0.67

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

The answer to "why 65%?"

Northern Ireland U21 scores more

65%

level

22%

Malta U21 scores more

13%

Northern Ireland U21 at 65% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 65% does not mean "Northern Ireland U21 will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

26'

A. Bradshaw← C. Gauci

33'

44'

45+4'

49'

60'

G. Sciberras← M. Grima

61'

B. Sciberras← J. Ghio

66'

M. Ellul

71'

R. Waide← P. ONeill

71'

C. Boyd-Munce← O. Smyth

71'

J. McGovern← P. Lane

77'

A. Zammit← J. Carbone

89'

A. Zammit↳ J. Engerer

Northern

Malta

▼

⚽

▼

▼

▼

▼

▼

▼

Manager: J. Schofield

71'▲R. Waide←▼P. ONeill

71'▲C. Boyd-Munce←▼O. Smyth

71'▲J. McGovern←▼P. Lane

Northern Ireland U21 substitutes

19Waide8Boyd-Munce14McGovern16McKiernan7Scott12Webber11Baggley13Charles18Johnston

Manager: G. Agius

26'▲A. Bradshaw←▼C. Gauci

60'▲G. Sciberras←▼M. Grima

61'▲B. Sciberras←▼J. Ghio

77'▲A. Zammit←▼J. Carbone

Malta U21 substitutes

5Bradshaw17Sciberras20Sciberras9Zammit14Mohnani3Leonardi10Sixsmith2Micallef12Sylla

Match Recap: Northern Ireland U21 vs Malta U21

Malta U21 beat Northern Ireland U21 2-0 in League #850 on November 16, 2021.

Goals: M. Grima (49'), A. Zammit (89').

The match was played at Mourneview Park in Lurgan.

Northern Ireland U21 vs Malta U21 — League #850 2026

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Total goals

Both teams score

Match Events

Head to Head

Match Recap: Northern Ireland U21 vs Malta U21