Northern Ireland U19 2–2 Slovenia U19

Northern Ireland U19

FT

2 – 2

HT: 2 – 0

Slovenia U19

P. Kelly 38', 33'

J. Potočnik 90'

S. Kuzmić 76'

9/21/2022

UEFA U19 Championship - Qualification · Qualifying Round - 3Sportpark Marsdijk

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 8+ matches

Northern Ireland U1930%

×Draw24%

Slovenia U1946%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.2%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Northern Ireland U19Expected goals in this matchSlovenia U19

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.31

1.66

Northern Ireland U19

1.31

Slovenia U19

1.66

Slovenia U19 creates 27% more chances

Season form · 8 home / 16 away

1.00

creates per match

1.06

2.25

allows per match

1.63

creates per match

Northern Ireland U19

1.00

Slovenia U19

1.06

allows per match

Northern Ireland U19

2.25

Slovenia U19

1.63

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Northern Ireland U19+0.00on par

Slovenia U19+0.00on par

Total goals

Over57
Under43

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes59
No41

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Northern Ireland U19 ↓

Slovenia U19 →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–05%

0–19%

0–27%

0–34%

0–42%

1

1–07%

1–111%

1–29%

1–35%

1–42%

2

2–04%

2–17%

2–26%

2–33%

2–41%

3

3–02%

3–13%

3–23%

3–31%

3–41%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

95%5%1.5

80%20%2.5

57%43%3.5

34%66%4.5

18%82%

Double chance

Northern Ireland U19 or draw

54%

Northern Ireland U19 or Slovenia U19

76%

Draw or Slovenia U19

70%

Winning margin

Northern Ireland U19 wins by 2+

13%

Slovenia U19 wins by 2+

24%

Team goals

Northern Ireland U19 1+ goals

73%

Northern Ireland U19 2+ goals

38%

Northern Ireland U19 3+ goals

14%

Slovenia U19 1+ goals

81%

Slovenia U19 2+ goals

49%

Slovenia U19 3+ goals

23%

Draw no bet

Northern Ireland U19 (draw refunded)

40%

Slovenia U19 (draw refunded)

60%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

48%

Both score & under 3

11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Northern Ireland U19 at home — creates 1.00, concedes 2.25 · 8 matches

Slovenia U19 away — creates 1.06, concedes 1.63 · 16 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Northern Ireland U19 attack 1.00 + Slovenia U19 defence 1.63 → ÷2 → 1.31

Slovenia U19 attack 1.06 + Northern Ireland U19 defence 2.25 → ÷2 → 1.66

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 46%?"

Northern Ireland U19 scores more

30%

level

24%

Slovenia U19 scores more

46%

Slovenia U19 at 46% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 46% does not mean "Slovenia U19 will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

24'

30'

33'

38'

46'

J. Potočnik← N. Kasalo

60'

T. Kljun

62'

J. C. Lindsay

71'

E. Krupić← M. Ilenič

71'

L. Turudija← M. Lorber

76'

S. Kuzmić

79'

A. Ristić← G. Černe

80'

S. Glenfield← C. Marshall

83'

A. Ristic

86'

J. Clarke

88'

A. Wightman← C. Lindsay

88'

A. Zulić← T. Kljun

90+1'

A. Wightman

90+2'

S. Kuzmic

90+2'

P. Kelly

90+3'

D. Sloan← P. Kelly

90'

J. Potočnik

Northern

Slovenia

1

Dermastij

15

Klašnja

6

⚽

Kuzmić

4

Trdin

19

Milić

2

▼

Ilenič

14

▼

Lorber

9

▼

Černe

10

▼

Kljun

7

▼

8

1

2

5

3

10

17

⚽2

▼

Kelly

6

Robinson

4

McConvill

7

▼

Lindsay

11

Kirk

9

▼

Marshall

Manager: G. Lyttle

80'▲S. Glenfield←▼C. Marshall

88'▲A. Wightman←▼C. Lindsay

90+3'▲D. Sloan←▼P. Kelly

Northern Ireland U19 substitutes

19Glenfield15Wightman8Sloan14McCallion13Roney16Trickett20Evans18Morgan12McMullan

Manager: A. Žlogar

46'▲J. Potočnik←▼N. Kasalo

71'▲E. Krupić←▼M. Ilenič

71'▲L. Turudija←▼M. Lorber

79'▲A. Ristić←▼G. Černe

88'▲A. Zulić←▼T. Kljun

Slovenia U19 substitutes

11Potočnik16Krupić18Turudija13Ristić5Zulić20Puconja12Tomažič3Kamenšek-Pahič17Kerezovič