Northern Ireland U19 0–0 Poland U19: Result & Stats

Northern Ireland U19

FT

0 – 0

HT: 0 – 0

Poland U19

11/14/2018

UEFA U19 Championship · Qualifying Round - 5Shamrock Park

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 3+ matches

Northern Ireland U1924%

×Draw35%

Poland U1940%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.2%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Northern Ireland U19Expected goals in this matchPoland U19

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

0.65

0.93

Northern Ireland U19

0.65

Poland U19

0.93

Poland U19 creates 43% more chances

Season form · 3 home / 7 away

0.00

creates per match

0.86

1.00

allows per match

1.29

creates per match

Northern Ireland U19

0.00

Poland U19

0.86

allows per match

Northern Ireland U19

1.00

Poland U19

1.29

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Northern Ireland U19+0.00on par

Poland U19+0.00on par

Total goals

Under79
Over21

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No71
Yes29

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Northern Ireland U19 ↓

Poland U19 →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–021%

0–119%

0–29%

0–33%

0–41%

1

1–013%

1–112%

1–26%

1–32%

1–40%

2

2–04%

2–14%

2–22%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–01%

3–11%

3–20%

3–30%

3–40%

4

4–00%

4–10%

4–20%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 0–0 (21%) · grid covers 100% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

79%21%1.5

47%53%2.5

21%79%3.5

8%92%4.5

2%98%

Double chance

Northern Ireland U19 or draw

60%

Northern Ireland U19 or Poland U19

65%

Draw or Poland U19

76%

Winning margin

Northern Ireland U19 wins by 2+

7%

Poland U19 wins by 2+

15%

Team goals

Northern Ireland U19 1+ goals

48%

Northern Ireland U19 2+ goals

14%

Northern Ireland U19 3+ goals

3%

Poland U19 1+ goals

61%

Poland U19 2+ goals

24%

Poland U19 3+ goals

7%

Draw no bet

Northern Ireland U19 (draw refunded)

38%

Poland U19 (draw refunded)

62%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

16%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Northern Ireland U19 at home — creates 0.00, concedes 1.00 · 3 matches

Poland U19 away — creates 0.86, concedes 1.29 · 7 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Northern Ireland U19 attack 0.00 + Poland U19 defence 1.29 → ÷2 → 0.65

Poland U19 attack 0.86 + Northern Ireland U19 defence 1.00 → ÷2 → 0.93

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 40%?"

Northern Ireland U19 scores more

24%

level

35%

Poland U19 scores more

40%

Poland U19 at 40% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 40% does not mean "Poland U19 will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff