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Northern Ireland U19 vs Italy U19 — UEFA U19 Championship 2019

Northern Ireland U19
Northern Ireland U19
FT
0 – 3
HT: 0 – 2
Italy U19
Italy U19
F. Camarda 48', 45+2'
K. Zeroli 15'
7/18/2024UEFA U19 ChampionshipUEFA U19 Championship · Group Stage - 2Inver Park

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 3+ matches

Northern Ireland U1917%
×Draw28%
Italy U1955%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 580,715 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.3% correct · Away picks 48.9% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Northern Ireland U19
0.64
Italy U19
1.39

Italy U19 creates 117% more chances

Season form · 3 home / 18 away

creates per match

Northern Ireland U19
0.00
Italy U19
1.78

allows per match

Northern Ireland U19
1.00
Italy U19
1.28

finishing

Northern Ireland U19+0.00on par
Italy U19+0.00on par

Total goals

67%Under
  • Under67
  • Over33

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

65%No
  • No65
  • Yes35

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Northern Ireland U19 ↓

Italy U19 →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–013%
0–118%
0–213%
0–36%
0–42%
1
1–08%
1–112%
1–28%
1–34%
1–41%
2
2–03%
2–14%
2–23%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–01%
3–11%
3–21%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–00%
4–10%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 0–1 (18%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
87%13%1.5
60%40%2.5
33%67%3.5
15%85%4.5
5%95%

Double chance

Northern Ireland U19 or draw
45%
Northern Ireland U19 or Italy U19
72%
Draw or Italy U19
83%

Winning margin

Northern Ireland U19 wins by 2+
4%
Italy U19 wins by 2+
27%

Team goals

Northern Ireland U19 1+ goals
47%
Northern Ireland U19 2+ goals
14%
Northern Ireland U19 3+ goals
3%
Italy U19 1+ goals
75%
Italy U19 2+ goals
40%
Italy U19 3+ goals
16%

Draw no bet

Northern Ireland U19 (draw refunded)
24%
Italy U19 (draw refunded)
76%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
24%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Northern Ireland U19 at home — creates 0.00, concedes 1.00 · 3 matches

Italy U19 away — creates 1.78, concedes 1.28 · 18 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Northern Ireland U19 attack 0.00 + Italy U19 defence 1.28 → ÷2 → 0.64

Italy U19 attack 1.78 + Northern Ireland U19 defence 1.00 → ÷2 → 1.39

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 55%?"

Northern Ireland U19 scores more
17%
level
28%
Italy U19 scores more
55%

Italy U19 at 55% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 55% does not mean "Italy U19 will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

11
F. CamardaItaly U19Italy U19 · F
8.2

Match Events

15'
K. Zeroli↳ A. Ciammaglichella
28'
Aaron Ciammaglichella
45+2'
F. Camarda
46'
V. Magni← A. Ciammaglichella
48'
F. Camarda↳ V. Magni
54'
M. Romano← K. Zeroli
54'
J. Harder← L. Di Maggio
55'
B. Graham← R. Evans
59'
Blaine Mcclure
64'
L. Trickett← B. McClure
64'
T. Atcheson← G. Goodman
64'
L. Anghelè← L. Lipani
71'
D. Sia← F. Camarda
77'
A. Doherty← K. Morrison
77'
C. Smith← D. Stitt

Possession

38%Northern

Shots

4Northern

Pass accuracy

46%Northern

Statistics

NorthernItaly
Overview
38%Possession62%
4Total Shots21
3Corners4
15Fouls10
Shots
4Total Shots21
2On Target6
1Off Target7
1Blocked8
4Inside Box13
0Outside Box8
Passing
38%Possession62%
302Total Passes505
213Accurate Passes429
71%Pass Accuracy85%
Goalkeeping
2Saves2
Discipline
15Fouls10
1Yellow Cards1
0Offsides6

UEFA U19 Championship: Northern Ireland U19 0–3 Italy U19

Italy U19 beat Northern Ireland U19 3-0 in UEFA U19 Championship on July 18, 2024.

Goals: K. Zeroli (15'), F. Camarda (45+2', 48').

Italy U19 controlled possession (62%) and registered 21 shots to 4.

The match was played at Inver Park in Larne.