Northern Ireland U19 1–0 Azerbaijan U19

Northern Ireland U19

FT

1 – 0

HT: 1 – 0

Azerbaijan U19

B. Graham 33'

11/15/2025

UEFA U19 Championship - Qualification · Qualifying Round - 2

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 8+ matches

Northern Ireland U1947%

×Draw22%

Azerbaijan U1931%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.2%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Northern Ireland U19Expected goals in this matchAzerbaijan U19

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.91

1.53

Northern Ireland U19

1.91

Azerbaijan U19

1.53

Northern Ireland U19 creates 25% more chances

Season form · 8 home / 11 away

1.00

creates per match

0.82

2.25

allows per match

2.82

creates per match

Northern Ireland U19

1.00

Azerbaijan U19

0.82

allows per match

Northern Ireland U19

2.25

Azerbaijan U19

2.82

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Northern Ireland U19+0.00on par

Azerbaijan U19+0.00on par

Total goals

Over67
Under33

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes67
No33

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Northern Ireland U19 ↓

Azerbaijan U19 →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–03%

0–15%

0–24%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–06%

1–19%

1–27%

1–34%

1–41%

2

2–06%

2–19%

2–27%

2–34%

2–41%

3

3–04%

3–16%

3–24%

3–32%

3–41%

4

4–02%

4–13%

4–22%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (9%) · grid covers 94% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

97%3%1.5

86%14%2.5

67%33%3.5

45%55%4.5

26%74%

Double chance

Northern Ireland U19 or draw

69%

Northern Ireland U19 or Azerbaijan U19

78%

Draw or Azerbaijan U19

53%

Winning margin

Northern Ireland U19 wins by 2+

26%

Azerbaijan U19 wins by 2+

15%

Team goals

Northern Ireland U19 1+ goals

85%

Northern Ireland U19 2+ goals

57%

Northern Ireland U19 3+ goals

30%

Azerbaijan U19 1+ goals

78%

Azerbaijan U19 2+ goals

45%

Azerbaijan U19 3+ goals

20%

Draw no bet

Northern Ireland U19 (draw refunded)

60%

Azerbaijan U19 (draw refunded)

40%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

57%

Both score & under 3

9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Northern Ireland U19 at home — creates 1.00, concedes 2.25 · 8 matches

Azerbaijan U19 away — creates 0.82, concedes 2.82 · 11 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Northern Ireland U19 attack 1.00 + Azerbaijan U19 defence 2.82 → ÷2 → 1.91

Azerbaijan U19 attack 0.82 + Northern Ireland U19 defence 2.25 → ÷2 → 1.53

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 47%?"

Northern Ireland U19 scores more

47%

level

22%

Azerbaijan U19 scores more

31%

Northern Ireland U19 at 47% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 47% does not mean "Northern Ireland U19 will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

33'

B. Graham

35'

E. Babazada

64'

A. Huseynov← S. Jafarov

64'

R. Gafarov← M. Mutallimli

67'

C. Leacock

75'

B. Downey← C. Burnside

75'

D. Stitt← C. O'Neill

75'

K. Thompson← G. Feeney

76'

N. Orujali← Z. Shakarkhanov

77'

M. Alishanli← T. Ahmadov

85'

O. Hasanli

90+5'

V. Pashayev

90+2'

P. McGovern← B. Graham

Northern

Azerbaijan

1

Hushanov

6

Orujov

16

▼

21

3

19

14

17

▼

Mutalliml

7

▼

Shakarkha

18

▼

11

1

5

4

2

3

7

▼

Burnside

8

McClure

16

▼

Feeney

19

Sheridan

11

▼

O'Neill

10

⚽

▼

Graham

Manager: G. McAuley

75'▲B. Downey←▼C. Burnside

75'▲D. Stitt←▼C. O'Neill

75'▲K. Thompson←▼G. Feeney

90+2'▲P. McGovern←▼B. Graham

Northern Ireland U19 substitutes

12Murdock6Doherty9McGovern13Downey14Matykiewicz15Friars17Stitt18Thompson20Walker

Manager: E. Abdullayev

64'▲A. Huseynov←▼S. Jafarov

64'▲R. Gafarov←▼M. Mutallimli

76'▲N. Orujali←▼Z. Shakarkhanov

77'▲M. Alishanli←▼T. Ahmadov

Azerbaijan U19 substitutes

22Abbaszada2Danziyev4Alishanli5Malikov8Huseynov9Orujali15Gafarov23Alishov

UEFA U19 Championship - Qualification: Northern Ireland U19 1–0 Azerbaijan U19

Northern Ireland U19 beat Azerbaijan U19 1-0 in UEFA U19 Championship - Qualification on November 15, 2025.

Goals: B. Graham (33').

Northern Ireland U19 vs Azerbaijan U19 — UEFA U19 Championship - Qualification 2022

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Total goals

Both teams score

Match Events

Head to Head

UEFA U19 Championship - Qualification: Northern Ireland U19 1–0 Azerbaijan U19