Northern Ireland U17 0–2 Greece U17: Result & Stats

Northern Ireland U17

FT

0 – 2

HT: 0 – 0

Greece U17

10/25/2023

UEFA U17 Championship - Qualification · Qualifying Round - 4Stadio dei Pini Germano Todoli

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 10+ matches

Northern Ireland U1724%

×Draw23%

Greece U1753%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Northern Ireland U17Expected goals in this matchGreece U17

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.14

1.80

Northern Ireland U17

1.14

Greece U17

1.80

Greece U17 creates 58% more chances

Season form · 11 home / 10 away

1.18

creates per match

1.70

1.91

allows per match

1.10

creates per match

Northern Ireland U17

1.18

Greece U17

1.70

allows per match

Northern Ireland U17

1.91

Greece U17

1.10

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Northern Ireland U17+0.00on par

Greece U17+0.00on par

Total goals

Over56
Under44

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes57
No43

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Northern Ireland U17 ↓

Greece U17 →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–05%

0–110%

0–29%

0–35%

0–42%

1

1–06%

1–111%

1–210%

1–36%

1–43%

2

2–03%

2–16%

2–26%

2–33%

2–42%

3

3–01%

3–12%

3–22%

3–31%

3–41%

4

4–00%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

95%5%1.5

79%21%2.5

56%44%3.5

34%66%4.5

17%83%

Double chance

Northern Ireland U17 or draw

47%

Northern Ireland U17 or Greece U17

77%

Draw or Greece U17

76%

Winning margin

Northern Ireland U17 wins by 2+

9%

Greece U17 wins by 2+

29%

Team goals

Northern Ireland U17 1+ goals

68%

Northern Ireland U17 2+ goals

32%

Northern Ireland U17 3+ goals

11%

Greece U17 1+ goals

83%

Greece U17 2+ goals

54%

Greece U17 3+ goals

27%

Draw no bet

Northern Ireland U17 (draw refunded)

31%

Greece U17 (draw refunded)

69%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

46%

Both score & under 3

11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Northern Ireland U17 at home — creates 1.18, concedes 1.91 · 11 matches

Greece U17 away — creates 1.70, concedes 1.10 · 10 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Northern Ireland U17 attack 1.18 + Greece U17 defence 1.10 → ÷2 → 1.14

Greece U17 attack 1.70 + Northern Ireland U17 defence 1.91 → ÷2 → 1.80

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 53%?"

Northern Ireland U17 scores more

24%

level

23%

Greece U17 scores more

53%

Greece U17 at 53% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 53% does not mean "Greece U17 will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff