Northern Indiana 0–0 Ann Arbor: Result & Stats

Northern Indiana

FT

0 – 0

HT: 0 – 0

Ann Arbor

6/10/2025

USL League Two · Central Conference - 8Indiana Invaders Soccer Complex

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 11+ matches

Northern Indiana46%

×Draw24%

Ann Arbor30%

✓ Correct in 49 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

48.6%

Always home

43.8%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 48.6% correct across 15,072 matches, vs 43.8% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.1% correct · Away picks 45.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Northern IndianaExpected goals in this matchAnn Arbor

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.64

1.28

Northern Indiana

1.64

Ann Arbor

1.28

Northern Indiana creates 28% more chances

Season form · 11 home / 13 away

1.73

creates per match

1.38

1.18

allows per match

1.54

creates per match

Northern Indiana

1.73

Ann Arbor

1.38

allows per match

Northern Indiana

1.18

Ann Arbor

1.54

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Northern Indiana+0.00on par

Ann Arbor+0.00on par

Total goals

Over56
Under44

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes58
No42

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Northern Indiana ↓

Ann Arbor →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–05%

0–17%

0–24%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–09%

1–111%

1–27%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–07%

2–19%

2–26%

2–33%

2–41%

3

3–04%

3–15%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–02%

4–12%

4–21%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

95%5%1.5

79%21%2.5

56%44%3.5

33%67%4.5

17%83%

Double chance

Northern Indiana or draw

70%

Northern Indiana or Ann Arbor

76%

Draw or Ann Arbor

54%

Winning margin

Northern Indiana wins by 2+

24%

Ann Arbor wins by 2+

13%

Team goals

Northern Indiana 1+ goals

81%

Northern Indiana 2+ goals

49%

Northern Indiana 3+ goals

23%

Ann Arbor 1+ goals

72%

Ann Arbor 2+ goals

37%

Ann Arbor 3+ goals

14%

Draw no bet

Northern Indiana (draw refunded)

60%

Ann Arbor (draw refunded)

40%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

47%

Both score & under 3

11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Northern Indiana at home — creates 1.73, concedes 1.18 · 11 matches

Ann Arbor away — creates 1.38, concedes 1.54 · 13 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Northern Indiana attack 1.73 + Ann Arbor defence 1.54 → ÷2 → 1.64

Ann Arbor attack 1.38 + Northern Indiana defence 1.18 → ÷2 → 1.28

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 46%?"

Northern Indiana scores more

46%

level

24%

Ann Arbor scores more

30%

Northern Indiana at 46% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 46% does not mean "Northern Indiana will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff