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Northern Colorado vs Union Omaha — USL League One 2019

Northern Colorado
Northern Colorado
FT
2 – 3
HT: 1 – 2
Union Omaha
Union Omaha
8/13/2023USL League OneUSL League One · Round 14TicketSmarter Stadium at Future Legends Complex

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 44+ matches

Northern Colorado45%
×Draw25%
Union Omaha30%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Northern Colorado
1.56
Union Omaha
1.24

Northern Colorado creates 26% more chances

Season form · 44 home / 87 away

creates per match

Northern Colorado
1.95
Union Omaha
1.34

allows per match

Northern Colorado
1.14
Union Omaha
1.17

finishing

Northern Colorado+0.00on par
Union Omaha+0.00on par

Total goals

53%Over
  • Over53
  • Under47

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

56%Yes
  • Yes56
  • No44

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Northern Colorado ↓

Union Omaha →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–06%
0–18%
0–25%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–010%
1–112%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–19%
2–26%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–04%
3–15%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
94%6%1.5
77%23%2.5
53%47%3.5
31%69%4.5
15%85%

Double chance

Northern Colorado or draw
70%
Northern Colorado or Union Omaha
75%
Draw or Union Omaha
55%

Winning margin

Northern Colorado wins by 2+
23%
Union Omaha wins by 2+
13%

Team goals

Northern Colorado 1+ goals
79%
Northern Colorado 2+ goals
46%
Northern Colorado 3+ goals
21%
Union Omaha 1+ goals
71%
Union Omaha 2+ goals
35%
Union Omaha 3+ goals
13%

Draw no bet

Northern Colorado (draw refunded)
60%
Union Omaha (draw refunded)
40%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
44%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Northern Colorado at home — creates 1.95, concedes 1.14 · 44 matches

Union Omaha away — creates 1.34, concedes 1.17 · 87 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Northern Colorado attack 1.95 + Union Omaha defence 1.17 → ÷2 → 1.56

Union Omaha attack 1.34 + Northern Colorado defence 1.14 → ÷2 → 1.24

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 45%?"

Northern Colorado scores more
45%
level
25%
Union Omaha scores more
30%

Northern Colorado at 45% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 45% does not mean "Northern Colorado will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Northern Colorado 2 – 3 Union Omaha

Union Omaha beat Northern Colorado 3-2 in USL League One on August 13, 2023.

The match was played at TicketSmarter Stadium at Future Legends Complex in Windsor, Colorado.