Northern Colorado 0–1 Richmond Kickers

Northern Colorado

FT

0 – 1

HT: 0 – 1

Richmond Kickers

8/3/2022

USL League One · Round 11Severance High School

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 44+ matches

Northern Colorado53%

×Draw23%

Richmond Kickers24%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Northern ColoradoExpected goals in this matchRichmond Kickers

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.79

1.13

Northern Colorado

1.79

Richmond Kickers

1.13

Northern Colorado creates 58% more chances

Season form · 44 home / 104 away

1.95

creates per match

1.11

1.14

allows per match

1.63

creates per match

Northern Colorado

1.95

Richmond Kickers

1.11

allows per match

Northern Colorado

1.14

Richmond Kickers

1.63

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Northern Colorado+0.00on par

Richmond Kickers+0.00on par

Total goals

Over56
Under44

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes56
No44

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Northern Colorado ↓

Richmond Kickers →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–05%

0–16%

0–23%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–010%

1–111%

1–26%

1–32%

1–41%

2

2–09%

2–110%

2–26%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–05%

3–16%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–02%

4–13%

4–21%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

95%5%1.5

79%21%2.5

56%44%3.5

33%67%4.5

17%83%

Double chance

Northern Colorado or draw

76%

Northern Colorado or Richmond Kickers

77%

Draw or Richmond Kickers

47%

Winning margin

Northern Colorado wins by 2+

29%

Richmond Kickers wins by 2+

9%

Team goals

Northern Colorado 1+ goals

83%

Northern Colorado 2+ goals

53%

Northern Colorado 3+ goals

26%

Richmond Kickers 1+ goals

68%

Richmond Kickers 2+ goals

31%

Richmond Kickers 3+ goals

11%

Draw no bet

Northern Colorado (draw refunded)

69%

Richmond Kickers (draw refunded)

31%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

45%

Both score & under 3

11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Northern Colorado at home — creates 1.95, concedes 1.14 · 44 matches

Richmond Kickers away — creates 1.11, concedes 1.63 · 104 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Northern Colorado attack 1.95 + Richmond Kickers defence 1.63 → ÷2 → 1.79

Richmond Kickers attack 1.11 + Northern Colorado defence 1.14 → ÷2 → 1.13

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 53%?"

Northern Colorado scores more

53%

level

23%

Richmond Kickers scores more

24%

Northern Colorado at 53% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 53% does not mean "Northern Colorado will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff