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Northern Colorado vs North Carolina — USL League One 2019

Northern Colorado
Northern Colorado
FT
1 – 1
HT: 1 – 1
North Carolina
North Carolina
6/9/2022USL League OneUSL League One · Round 6Jackson Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 44+ matches

Northern Colorado52%
×Draw23%
North Carolina25%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Northern Colorado
1.83
North Carolina
1.21

Northern Colorado creates 51% more chances

Season form · 44 home / 45 away

creates per match

Northern Colorado
1.95
North Carolina
1.27

allows per match

Northern Colorado
1.14
North Carolina
1.71

finishing

Northern Colorado+0.00on par
North Carolina+0.00on par

Total goals

58%Over
  • Over58
  • Under42

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

59%Yes
  • Yes59
  • No41

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Northern Colorado ↓

North Carolina →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–05%
0–16%
0–24%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–09%
1–111%
1–26%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–08%
2–110%
2–26%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–05%
3–16%
3–24%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–13%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
95%5%1.5
81%19%2.5
58%42%3.5
36%64%4.5
19%81%

Double chance

Northern Colorado or draw
75%
Northern Colorado or North Carolina
77%
Draw or North Carolina
48%

Winning margin

Northern Colorado wins by 2+
29%
North Carolina wins by 2+
10%

Team goals

Northern Colorado 1+ goals
84%
Northern Colorado 2+ goals
54%
Northern Colorado 3+ goals
28%
North Carolina 1+ goals
70%
North Carolina 2+ goals
34%
North Carolina 3+ goals
12%

Draw no bet

Northern Colorado (draw refunded)
67%
North Carolina (draw refunded)
33%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
48%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Northern Colorado at home — creates 1.95, concedes 1.14 · 44 matches

North Carolina away — creates 1.27, concedes 1.71 · 45 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Northern Colorado attack 1.95 + North Carolina defence 1.71 → ÷2 → 1.83

North Carolina attack 1.27 + Northern Colorado defence 1.14 → ÷2 → 1.21

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 52%?"

Northern Colorado scores more
52%
level
23%
North Carolina scores more
25%

Northern Colorado at 52% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 52% does not mean "Northern Colorado will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Northern Colorado vs North Carolina

Northern Colorado and North Carolina drew 1-1 in USL League One on June 9, 2022.

The match was played at Jackson Stadium in Greeley, Colorado.