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North Carolina vs Northern Colorado — USL League One 2019

North Carolina
North Carolina
FT
1 – 2
HT: 0 – 1
Northern Colorado
Northern Colorado
8/26/2023USL League OneUSL League One · Round 15WakeMed Soccer Park

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 43+ matches

North Carolina37%
×Draw26%
Northern Colorado37%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

North Carolina
1.33
Northern Colorado
1.34

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 46 home / 43 away

creates per match

North Carolina
1.50
Northern Colorado
1.26

allows per match

North Carolina
1.43
Northern Colorado
1.16

finishing

North Carolina+0.00on par
Northern Colorado+0.00on par

Total goals

50%Under
  • Under50
  • Over50

Close call

Both teams score

54%Yes
  • Yes54
  • No46

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

North Carolina ↓

Northern Colorado →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–07%
0–19%
0–26%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–09%
1–112%
1–28%
1–34%
1–41%
2
2–06%
2–18%
2–26%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–03%
3–14%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
93%7%1.5
75%25%2.5
50%50%3.5
28%72%4.5
13%87%

Double chance

North Carolina or draw
63%
North Carolina or Northern Colorado
74%
Draw or Northern Colorado
63%

Winning margin

North Carolina wins by 2+
16%
Northern Colorado wins by 2+
17%

Team goals

North Carolina 1+ goals
74%
North Carolina 2+ goals
38%
North Carolina 3+ goals
15%
Northern Colorado 1+ goals
74%
Northern Colorado 2+ goals
39%
Northern Colorado 3+ goals
15%

Draw no bet

North Carolina (draw refunded)
50%
Northern Colorado (draw refunded)
50%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
42%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

North Carolina at home — creates 1.50, concedes 1.43 · 46 matches

Northern Colorado away — creates 1.26, concedes 1.16 · 43 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

North Carolina attack 1.50 + Northern Colorado defence 1.16 → ÷2 → 1.33

Northern Colorado attack 1.26 + North Carolina defence 1.43 → ÷2 → 1.34

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 37%?"

North Carolina scores more
37%
level
26%
Northern Colorado scores more
37%

North Carolina at 37% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 37% does not mean "North Carolina will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

USL League One: North Carolina 1–2 Northern Colorado

Northern Colorado beat North Carolina 2-1 in USL League One on August 26, 2023.

The match was played at WakeMed Soccer Park in Cary, North Carolina.