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Northern Colorado vs Greenville Triumph — USL League One 2019

Northern Colorado
Northern Colorado
FT
1 – 1
HT: 0 – 0
Greenville Triumph
Greenville Triumph
9/25/2022USL League OneUSL League One · Round 16Severance High School

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 44+ matches

Northern Colorado47%
×Draw25%
Greenville Triumph28%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Northern Colorado
1.63
Greenville Triumph
1.21

Northern Colorado creates 35% more chances

Season form · 44 home / 104 away

creates per match

Northern Colorado
1.95
Greenville Triumph
1.29

allows per match

Northern Colorado
1.14
Greenville Triumph
1.31

finishing

Northern Colorado+0.00on par
Greenville Triumph+0.00on par

Total goals

54%Over
  • Over54
  • Under46

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

56%Yes
  • Yes56
  • No44

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Northern Colorado ↓

Greenville Triumph →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–06%
0–17%
0–24%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–010%
1–112%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–08%
2–19%
2–26%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–04%
3–15%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
94%6%1.5
78%22%2.5
54%46%3.5
32%68%4.5
16%84%

Double chance

Northern Colorado or draw
72%
Northern Colorado or Greenville Triumph
75%
Draw or Greenville Triumph
53%

Winning margin

Northern Colorado wins by 2+
24%
Greenville Triumph wins by 2+
12%

Team goals

Northern Colorado 1+ goals
80%
Northern Colorado 2+ goals
48%
Northern Colorado 3+ goals
22%
Greenville Triumph 1+ goals
70%
Greenville Triumph 2+ goals
34%
Greenville Triumph 3+ goals
12%

Draw no bet

Northern Colorado (draw refunded)
62%
Greenville Triumph (draw refunded)
38%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
45%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Northern Colorado at home — creates 1.95, concedes 1.14 · 44 matches

Greenville Triumph away — creates 1.29, concedes 1.31 · 104 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Northern Colorado attack 1.95 + Greenville Triumph defence 1.31 → ÷2 → 1.63

Greenville Triumph attack 1.29 + Northern Colorado defence 1.14 → ÷2 → 1.21

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 47%?"

Northern Colorado scores more
47%
level
25%
Greenville Triumph scores more
28%

Northern Colorado at 47% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 47% does not mean "Northern Colorado will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Northern Colorado vs Greenville Triumph

Northern Colorado and Greenville Triumph drew 1-1 in USL League One on September 25, 2022.

The match was played at Severance High School in Severance, Colorado.