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Northern Colorado vs Central Valley Fuego — USL League One 2019

Northern Colorado
Northern Colorado
FT
4 – 1
HT: 4 – 0
Central Valley Fuego
Central Valley Fuego
5/27/2023USL League OneUSL League One · Round 7TicketSmarter Stadium at Future Legends Complex

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 42+ matches

Northern Colorado53%
×Draw22%
Central Valley Fuego25%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Northern Colorado
1.95
Central Valley Fuego
1.26

Northern Colorado creates 55% more chances

Season form · 44 home / 42 away

creates per match

Northern Colorado
1.95
Central Valley Fuego
1.38

allows per match

Northern Colorado
1.14
Central Valley Fuego
1.95

finishing

Northern Colorado+0.00on par
Central Valley Fuego+0.00on par

Total goals

62%Over
  • Over62
  • Under38

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

61%Yes
  • Yes61
  • No39

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Northern Colorado ↓

Central Valley Fuego →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–04%
0–15%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–08%
1–110%
1–26%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–08%
2–110%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–05%
3–16%
3–24%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–02%
4–13%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
96%4%1.5
83%17%2.5
62%38%3.5
40%60%4.5
22%78%

Double chance

Northern Colorado or draw
75%
Northern Colorado or Central Valley Fuego
78%
Draw or Central Valley Fuego
47%

Winning margin

Northern Colorado wins by 2+
31%
Central Valley Fuego wins by 2+
10%

Team goals

Northern Colorado 1+ goals
86%
Northern Colorado 2+ goals
58%
Northern Colorado 3+ goals
31%
Central Valley Fuego 1+ goals
72%
Central Valley Fuego 2+ goals
36%
Central Valley Fuego 3+ goals
13%

Draw no bet

Northern Colorado (draw refunded)
68%
Central Valley Fuego (draw refunded)
32%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
51%
Both score & under 3
10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Northern Colorado at home — creates 1.95, concedes 1.14 · 44 matches

Central Valley Fuego away — creates 1.38, concedes 1.95 · 42 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Northern Colorado attack 1.95 + Central Valley Fuego defence 1.95 → ÷2 → 1.95

Central Valley Fuego attack 1.38 + Northern Colorado defence 1.14 → ÷2 → 1.26

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 53%?"

Northern Colorado scores more
53%
level
22%
Central Valley Fuego scores more
25%

Northern Colorado at 53% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 53% does not mean "Northern Colorado will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Northern Colorado 4 – 1 Central Valley Fuego

Northern Colorado beat Central Valley Fuego 4-1 in USL League One on May 27, 2023.

The match was played at TicketSmarter Stadium at Future Legends Complex in Windsor, Colorado.