Central Valley Fuego 0–1 Northern Colorado

Central Valley Fuego

FT

0 – 1

HT: 0 – 0

Northern Colorado

8/31/2024

USL League One Cup · Group Stage - 5Fresno State Soccer Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 3+ matches

Central Valley Fuego9%

×Draw21%

Northern Colorado70%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Central Valley FuegoExpected goals in this matchNorthern Colorado

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

0.50

1.83

Central Valley Fuego

0.50

Northern Colorado

1.83

Northern Colorado creates 266% more chances

Season form · 3 home / 3 away

0.33

creates per match

3.00

0.67

allows per match

0.67

creates per match

Central Valley Fuego

0.33

Northern Colorado

3.00

allows per match

Central Valley Fuego

0.67

Northern Colorado

0.67

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Central Valley Fuego+0.00on par

Northern Colorado+0.00on par

Total goals

Under59
Over41

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No67
Yes33

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Central Valley Fuego ↓

Northern Colorado →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–010%

0–118%

0–216%

0–310%

0–45%

1

1–05%

1–19%

1–28%

1–35%

1–42%

2

2–01%

2–12%

2–22%

2–31%

2–41%

3

3–00%

3–10%

3–20%

3–30%

3–40%

4

4–00%

4–10%

4–20%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 0–1 (18%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

90%10%1.5

68%32%2.5

41%59%3.5

20%80%4.5

8%92%

Double chance

Central Valley Fuego or draw

30%

Central Valley Fuego or Northern Colorado

79%

Draw or Northern Colorado

91%

Winning margin

Central Valley Fuego wins by 2+

2%

Northern Colorado wins by 2+

42%

Team goals

Central Valley Fuego 1+ goals

39%

Central Valley Fuego 2+ goals

9%

Central Valley Fuego 3+ goals

1%

Northern Colorado 1+ goals

84%

Northern Colorado 2+ goals

54%

Northern Colorado 3+ goals

28%

Draw no bet

Central Valley Fuego (draw refunded)

12%

Northern Colorado (draw refunded)

88%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

24%

Both score & under 3

9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Central Valley Fuego at home — creates 0.33, concedes 0.67 · 3 matches

Northern Colorado away — creates 3.00, concedes 0.67 · 3 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Central Valley Fuego attack 0.33 + Northern Colorado defence 0.67 → ÷2 → 0.50

Northern Colorado attack 3.00 + Central Valley Fuego defence 0.67 → ÷2 → 1.83

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 70%?"

Central Valley Fuego scores more

9%

level

21%

Northern Colorado scores more

70%

Northern Colorado at 70% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 70% does not mean "Northern Colorado will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff