Scoreo
FootballHockeyTennisBasketballVolleyballHandballBaseballRugbyMMAFormula 1

Northern City vs Yapei — Division One League 2025

Northern City
Northern City
FT
3 – 2
HT: 1 – 1
Yapei
Yapei
3/28/2026Division One LeagueDivision One League · Round 24

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 14+ matches

Northern City57%
×Draw23%
Yapei21%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Northern City
1.86
Yapei
1.03

Northern City creates 81% more chances

Season form · 14 home / 14 away

creates per match

Northern City
1.93
Yapei
0.57

allows per match

Northern City
1.50
Yapei
1.79

finishing

Northern City+0.00on par
Yapei+0.00on par

Total goals

55%Over
  • Over55
  • Under45

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

54%Yes
  • Yes54
  • No46

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Northern City ↓

Yapei →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–06%
0–16%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–010%
1–111%
1–26%
1–32%
1–40%
2
2–010%
2–110%
2–25%
2–32%
2–40%
3
3–06%
3–16%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–03%
4–13%
4–21%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
94%6%1.5
78%22%2.5
55%45%3.5
33%67%4.5
16%84%

Double chance

Northern City or draw
79%
Northern City or Yapei
77%
Draw or Yapei
43%

Winning margin

Northern City wins by 2+
33%
Yapei wins by 2+
7%

Team goals

Northern City 1+ goals
84%
Northern City 2+ goals
55%
Northern City 3+ goals
28%
Yapei 1+ goals
64%
Yapei 2+ goals
28%
Yapei 3+ goals
9%

Draw no bet

Northern City (draw refunded)
73%
Yapei (draw refunded)
27%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
44%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Northern City at home — creates 1.93, concedes 1.50 · 14 matches

Yapei away — creates 0.57, concedes 1.79 · 14 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Northern City attack 1.93 + Yapei defence 1.79 → ÷2 → 1.86

Yapei attack 0.57 + Northern City defence 1.50 → ÷2 → 1.03

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 57%?"

Northern City scores more
57%
level
23%
Yapei scores more
21%

Northern City at 57% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 57% does not mean "Northern City will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Northern City vs Yapei

Northern City beat Yapei 3-2 in Division One League on March 28, 2026.