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Northern City vs Tamale City — Division One League 2025

Northern City
Northern City
FT
0 – 1
HT: 0 – 1
Tamale City
Tamale City
1/4/2026Division One LeagueDivision One League · Round 14

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 14+ matches

Northern City41%
×Draw25%
Tamale City33%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Northern City
1.50
Tamale City
1.32

Northern City creates 14% more chances

Season form · 14 home / 14 away

creates per match

Northern City
1.93
Tamale City
1.14

allows per match

Northern City
1.50
Tamale City
1.07

finishing

Northern City+0.00on par
Tamale City+0.00on par

Total goals

53%Over
  • Over53
  • Under47

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

57%Yes
  • Yes57
  • No43

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Northern City ↓

Tamale City →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–06%
0–18%
0–25%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–09%
1–112%
1–28%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–19%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–03%
3–14%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
94%6%1.5
77%23%2.5
53%47%3.5
31%69%4.5
15%85%

Double chance

Northern City or draw
67%
Northern City or Tamale City
75%
Draw or Tamale City
59%

Winning margin

Northern City wins by 2+
20%
Tamale City wins by 2+
15%

Team goals

Northern City 1+ goals
78%
Northern City 2+ goals
44%
Northern City 3+ goals
19%
Tamale City 1+ goals
73%
Tamale City 2+ goals
38%
Tamale City 3+ goals
15%

Draw no bet

Northern City (draw refunded)
55%
Tamale City (draw refunded)
45%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
45%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Northern City at home — creates 1.93, concedes 1.50 · 14 matches

Tamale City away — creates 1.14, concedes 1.07 · 14 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Northern City attack 1.93 + Tamale City defence 1.07 → ÷2 → 1.50

Tamale City attack 1.14 + Northern City defence 1.50 → ÷2 → 1.32

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 41%?"

Northern City scores more
41%
level
25%
Tamale City scores more
33%

Northern City at 41% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 41% does not mean "Northern City will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Northern City vs Tamale City

Tamale City beat Northern City 1-0 in Division One League on January 4, 2026.