NorthEast United 1–4 Odisha: Result & Stats

NorthEast United

FT

1 – 4

HT: 1 – 2

Odisha

3/20/2026

Indian Super League · Round 6Indira Gandhi Athletic Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 72+ matches

NorthEast United42%

×Draw24%

Odisha35%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

NorthEast UnitedExpected goals in this matchOdisha

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.63

1.47

NorthEast United

1.63

Odisha

1.47

NorthEast United creates 11% more chances

Season form · 72 home / 72 away

1.43

creates per match

1.25

1.69

allows per match

1.82

creates per match

NorthEast United

1.43

Odisha

1.25

allows per match

NorthEast United

1.69

Odisha

1.82

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

NorthEast United+0.00on par

Odisha+0.00on par

Total goals

Over60
Under40

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes62
No38

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

NorthEast United ↓

Odisha →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–05%

0–17%

0–25%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–07%

1–111%

1–28%

1–34%

1–41%

2

2–06%

2–19%

2–26%

2–33%

2–41%

3

3–03%

3–15%

3–24%

3–32%

3–41%

4

4–01%

4–12%

4–21%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

95%5%1.5

81%19%2.5

60%40%3.5

37%63%4.5

20%80%

Double chance

NorthEast United or draw

65%

NorthEast United or Odisha

76%

Draw or Odisha

58%

Winning margin

NorthEast United wins by 2+

21%

Odisha wins by 2+

16%

Team goals

NorthEast United 1+ goals

80%

NorthEast United 2+ goals

48%

NorthEast United 3+ goals

22%

Odisha 1+ goals

77%

Odisha 2+ goals

43%

Odisha 3+ goals

18%

Draw no bet

NorthEast United (draw refunded)

55%

Odisha (draw refunded)

45%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

51%

Both score & under 3

11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

NorthEast United at home — creates 1.43, concedes 1.69 · 72 matches

Odisha away — creates 1.25, concedes 1.82 · 72 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

NorthEast United attack 1.43 + Odisha defence 1.82 → ÷2 → 1.63

Odisha attack 1.25 + NorthEast United defence 1.69 → ÷2 → 1.47

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 42%?"

NorthEast United scores more

42%

level

24%

Odisha scores more

35%

NorthEast United at 42% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 42% does not mean "NorthEast United will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff