NorthEast United 2–0 Kerala Blasters

NorthEast United

FT

2 – 0

HT: 0 – 0

Kerala Blasters

J. Madathil Subran 90+1'

Néstor Albiach 84'

4/6/2024

Indian Super League · Round 21Indira Gandhi Athletic Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 67+ matches

NorthEast United39%

×Draw25%

Kerala Blasters37%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 580,715 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.3% correct · Away picks 48.9% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

NorthEast UnitedExpected goals in this matchKerala Blasters

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.50

1.46

NorthEast United

1.50

Kerala Blasters

1.46

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 70 home / 67 away

1.41

creates per match

1.21

1.70

allows per match

1.58

creates per match

NorthEast United

1.41

Kerala Blasters

1.21

allows per match

NorthEast United

1.70

Kerala Blasters

1.58

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

NorthEast United+0.00on par

Kerala Blasters+0.00on par

Total goals

Over57
Under43

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes60
No40

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

NorthEast United ↓

Kerala Blasters →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–05%

0–18%

0–26%

0–33%

0–41%

1

1–08%

1–111%

1–28%

1–34%

1–41%

2

2–06%

2–19%

2–26%

2–33%

2–41%

3

3–03%

3–14%

3–23%

3–32%

3–41%

4

4–01%

4–12%

4–21%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

95%5%1.5

79%21%2.5

57%43%3.5

34%66%4.5

18%82%

Double chance

NorthEast United or draw

63%

NorthEast United or Kerala Blasters

75%

Draw or Kerala Blasters

61%

Winning margin

NorthEast United wins by 2+

19%

Kerala Blasters wins by 2+

17%

Team goals

NorthEast United 1+ goals

78%

NorthEast United 2+ goals

44%

NorthEast United 3+ goals

19%

Kerala Blasters 1+ goals

77%

Kerala Blasters 2+ goals

43%

Kerala Blasters 3+ goals

18%

Draw no bet

NorthEast United (draw refunded)

51%

Kerala Blasters (draw refunded)

49%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

48%

Both score & under 3

11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

NorthEast United at home — creates 1.41, concedes 1.70 · 70 matches

Kerala Blasters away — creates 1.21, concedes 1.58 · 67 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

NorthEast United attack 1.41 + Kerala Blasters defence 1.58 → ÷2 → 1.50

Kerala Blasters attack 1.21 + NorthEast United defence 1.70 → ÷2 → 1.46

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 39%?"

NorthEast United scores more

39%

level

25%

Kerala Blasters scores more

37%

NorthEast United at 39% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 39% does not mean "NorthEast United will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

12

A. Akhtar

NorthEast United · D

8.2

Match Events

46'

P. Singh← M. Singh

46'

M. Nickson← R. Tlang

48'

Saurav Mandal

60'

R. Philippoteaux← H. Regragui

63'

Soraisham Dinesh Singh

64'

V. Mohanan← F. Lallawmawma

64'

R. Kannoly Praveen← M. Aimen

67'

B. Oram← D. Singh

77'

K. Singh← N. Sudheesh

84'

T. Singh← B. Samte

84'

Néstor Albiach↳ Míchel Zabaco

90+3'

Jithin MS

90'

A. Das← M. Azhar

90+1'

S. Meitei← D. Farooq

90+1'

J. Madathil Subran↳ P. Singh

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

NorthEastKerala

Overview

52%Possession48%

13Total Shots14

4Corners6

9Fouls7

Shots

13Total Shots14

5On Target3

6Off Target10

2Blocked1

12Inside Box6

1Outside Box8

Passing

52%Possession48%

349Total Passes320

268Accurate Passes219

77%Pass Accuracy68%

Goalkeeping

3Saves3

Discipline

9Fouls7

2Yellow Cards1

6Offsides1