NorthEast United 1–1 Goa: Result & Stats

NorthEast United

FT

1 – 1

HT: 1 – 1

Goa

12/29/2023

Indian Super League · Round 12Indira Gandhi Athletic Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 72+ matches

NorthEast United34%

×Draw24%

Goa43%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

NorthEast UnitedExpected goals in this matchGoa

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.47

1.68

NorthEast United

1.47

Goa

1.68

Goa creates 14% more chances

Season form · 72 home / 72 away

1.43

creates per match

1.67

1.69

allows per match

1.51

creates per match

NorthEast United

1.43

Goa

1.67

allows per match

NorthEast United

1.69

Goa

1.51

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

NorthEast United+0.00on par

Goa+0.00on par

Total goals

Over61
Under39

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes63
No37

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

NorthEast United ↓

Goa →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–04%

0–17%

0–26%

0–33%

0–41%

1

1–06%

1–111%

1–29%

1–35%

1–42%

2

2–05%

2–18%

2–27%

2–34%

2–42%

3

3–02%

3–14%

3–23%

3–32%

3–41%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

96%4%1.5

82%18%2.5

61%39%3.5

38%62%4.5

21%79%

Double chance

NorthEast United or draw

57%

NorthEast United or Goa

76%

Draw or Goa

66%

Winning margin

NorthEast United wins by 2+

16%

Goa wins by 2+

22%

Team goals

NorthEast United 1+ goals

77%

NorthEast United 2+ goals

43%

NorthEast United 3+ goals

18%

Goa 1+ goals

81%

Goa 2+ goals

50%

Goa 3+ goals

24%

Draw no bet

NorthEast United (draw refunded)

44%

Goa (draw refunded)

56%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

52%

Both score & under 3

11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

NorthEast United at home — creates 1.43, concedes 1.69 · 72 matches

Goa away — creates 1.67, concedes 1.51 · 72 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

NorthEast United attack 1.43 + Goa defence 1.51 → ÷2 → 1.47

Goa attack 1.67 + NorthEast United defence 1.69 → ÷2 → 1.68

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 43%?"

NorthEast United scores more

34%

level

24%

Goa scores more

43%

Goa at 43% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 43% does not mean "Goa will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff