Goa 0–2 NorthEast United: Result & Stats

Goa

FT

0 – 2

HT: 0 – 0

NorthEast United

Odei Onaindia 80' (OG)

T. Jurić 69' (pen)

2/21/2024

Indian Super League · Round 16Pandit Jawaharlal Nehru Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 10+ matches

Goa44%

×Draw25%

NorthEast United31%

✓ Correct in 49 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

48.6%

Always home

43.8%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 48.6% correct across 15,072 matches, vs 43.8% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.1% correct · Away picks 45.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

GoaExpected goals in this matchNorthEast United

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.55

1.27

Goa

1.55

NorthEast United

1.27

Goa creates 22% more chances

Season form · 20 home / 10 away

1.70

creates per match

1.50

1.05

allows per match

1.40

creates per match

Goa

1.70

NorthEast United

1.50

allows per match

Goa

1.05

NorthEast United

1.40

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Goa+0.00on par

NorthEast United+0.00on par

Total goals

Over53
Under47

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes57
No43

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Goa ↓

NorthEast United →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–06%

0–18%

0–25%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–09%

1–112%

1–27%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–07%

2–19%

2–26%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–04%

3–15%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–12%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

94%6%1.5

77%23%2.5

53%47%3.5

31%69%4.5

15%85%

Double chance

Goa or draw

69%

Goa or NorthEast United

75%

Draw or NorthEast United

56%

Winning margin

Goa wins by 2+

22%

NorthEast United wins by 2+

13%

Team goals

Goa 1+ goals

79%

Goa 2+ goals

46%

Goa 3+ goals

20%

NorthEast United 1+ goals

72%

NorthEast United 2+ goals

36%

NorthEast United 3+ goals

14%

Draw no bet

Goa (draw refunded)

58%

NorthEast United (draw refunded)

42%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

45%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Goa at home — creates 1.70, concedes 1.05 · 20 matches

NorthEast United away — creates 1.50, concedes 1.40 · 10 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Goa attack 1.70 + NorthEast United defence 1.40 → ÷2 → 1.55

NorthEast United attack 1.50 + Goa defence 1.05 → ÷2 → 1.27

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 44%?"

Goa scores more

44%

level

25%

NorthEast United scores more

31%

Goa at 44% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 44% does not mean "Goa will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

32

M. Michu

NorthEast United · G

8.0

Match Events

20'

Borja Herrera

53'

Jithin MS

60'

N. Sadaoui← Carlos Martínez

60'

M. Nickson← B. Oram

60'

Néstor Albiach← H. Regragui

69'

T. JurićPenalty

70'

R. Borges← A. Chhetri

70'

B. Fernandes← B. Singh

70'

R. Philippoteaux← T. Jurić

77'

P. Retre← Borja Herrera

77'

U. Singh← S. Fernandes

80'

Odei OnaindiaOwn goal

84'

Redeem Tlang

89'

G. Bora← R. Tlang

90+1'

Asheer Akhtar

90+1'

Louis Nickson Macarton

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

GoaNorthEast

Overview

61%Possession39%

24Total Shots8

10Corners2

11Fouls18

Shots

24Total Shots8

4On Target1

15Off Target6

5Blocked1

14Inside Box6

10Outside Box2

Passing

61%Possession39%

405Total Passes266

298Accurate Passes160

74%Pass Accuracy60%

Goalkeeping

0Saves4

Discipline

11Fouls18

1Yellow Cards4

2Offsides1