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Northcote City vs Preston Lions — Victoria NPL 2 2026

Northcote City
Northcote City
FT
1 – 1
HT: 0 – 1
Preston Lions
Preston Lions
6/7/2024Victoria NPL 2Victoria NPL 2 · Round 17John Cain Memorial Reserve

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 26+ matches

Northcote City40%
×Draw24%
Preston Lions36%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Northcote City
1.64
Preston Lions
1.54

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 68 home / 26 away

creates per match

Northcote City
1.81
Preston Lions
1.85

allows per match

Northcote City
1.24
Preston Lions
1.46

finishing

Northcote City+0.00on par
Preston Lions+0.00on par

Total goals

61%Over
  • Over61
  • Under39

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

63%Yes
  • Yes63
  • No37

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Northcote City ↓

Preston Lions →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–04%
0–16%
0–25%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–07%
1–111%
1–28%
1–34%
1–42%
2
2–06%
2–19%
2–27%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–03%
3–15%
3–24%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–01%
4–12%
4–21%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
96%4%1.5
83%17%2.5
61%39%3.5
39%61%4.5
21%79%

Double chance

Northcote City or draw
64%
Northcote City or Preston Lions
76%
Draw or Preston Lions
60%

Winning margin

Northcote City wins by 2+
20%
Preston Lions wins by 2+
17%

Team goals

Northcote City 1+ goals
81%
Northcote City 2+ goals
49%
Northcote City 3+ goals
23%
Preston Lions 1+ goals
79%
Preston Lions 2+ goals
45%
Preston Lions 3+ goals
20%

Draw no bet

Northcote City (draw refunded)
53%
Preston Lions (draw refunded)
47%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
53%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Northcote City at home — creates 1.81, concedes 1.24 · 68 matches

Preston Lions away — creates 1.85, concedes 1.46 · 26 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Northcote City attack 1.81 + Preston Lions defence 1.46 → ÷2 → 1.64

Preston Lions attack 1.85 + Northcote City defence 1.24 → ÷2 → 1.54

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 40%?"

Northcote City scores more
40%
level
24%
Preston Lions scores more
36%

Northcote City at 40% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 40% does not mean "Northcote City will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Northcote City vs Preston Lions

Northcote City and Preston Lions drew 1-1 in Victoria NPL 2 on June 7, 2024.

The match was played at John Cain Memorial Reserve in Melbourne.