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Northcote City vs Pascoe Vale — Victoria NPL 2 2021

Northcote City
Northcote City
FT
0 – 3
Pascoe Vale
Pascoe Vale
8/23/2022Victoria NPL 2Victoria NPL 2 · Round 22John Cain Memorial Reserve

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 31+ matches

Northcote City43%
×Draw23%
Pascoe Vale34%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Northcote City
1.69
Pascoe Vale
1.48

Northcote City creates 14% more chances

Season form · 67 home / 31 away

creates per match

Northcote City
1.79
Pascoe Vale
1.74

allows per match

Northcote City
1.21
Pascoe Vale
1.58

finishing

Northcote City+0.00on par
Pascoe Vale+0.00on par

Total goals

61%Over
  • Over61
  • Under39

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

63%Yes
  • Yes63
  • No37

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Northcote City ↓

Pascoe Vale →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–04%
0–16%
0–25%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–07%
1–111%
1–28%
1–34%
1–41%
2
2–06%
2–19%
2–27%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–03%
3–15%
3–24%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–01%
4–12%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
96%4%1.5
82%18%2.5
61%39%3.5
39%61%4.5
21%79%

Double chance

Northcote City or draw
66%
Northcote City or Pascoe Vale
77%
Draw or Pascoe Vale
57%

Winning margin

Northcote City wins by 2+
22%
Pascoe Vale wins by 2+
16%

Team goals

Northcote City 1+ goals
82%
Northcote City 2+ goals
50%
Northcote City 3+ goals
24%
Pascoe Vale 1+ goals
77%
Pascoe Vale 2+ goals
43%
Pascoe Vale 3+ goals
19%

Draw no bet

Northcote City (draw refunded)
56%
Pascoe Vale (draw refunded)
44%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
52%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Northcote City at home — creates 1.79, concedes 1.21 · 67 matches

Pascoe Vale away — creates 1.74, concedes 1.58 · 31 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Northcote City attack 1.79 + Pascoe Vale defence 1.58 → ÷2 → 1.69

Pascoe Vale attack 1.74 + Northcote City defence 1.21 → ÷2 → 1.48

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 43%?"

Northcote City scores more
43%
level
23%
Pascoe Vale scores more
34%

Northcote City at 43% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 43% does not mean "Northcote City will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Northcote City vs Pascoe Vale

Pascoe Vale beat Northcote City 3-0 in Victoria NPL 2 on August 23, 2022.

The match was played at John Cain Memorial Reserve in Melbourne.