Northcote City 7–1 Kingston City: Result & Stats

Northcote City

FT

7 – 1

HT: 3 – 1

Kingston City

7/25/2025

Victoria NPL 2 · Round 23John Cain Memorial Reserve

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 57+ matches

Northcote City49%

×Draw22%

Kingston City29%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Northcote CityExpected goals in this matchKingston City

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.98

1.48

Northcote City

1.98

Kingston City

1.48

Northcote City creates 34% more chances

Season form · 67 home / 57 away

1.79

creates per match

1.74

1.21

allows per match

2.16

creates per match

Northcote City

1.79

Kingston City

1.74

allows per match

Northcote City

1.21

Kingston City

2.16

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Northcote City+0.00on par

Kingston City+0.00on par

Total goals

Over67
Under33

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes67
No33

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Northcote City ↓

Kingston City →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–03%

0–15%

0–23%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–06%

1–19%

1–27%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–06%

2–19%

2–27%

2–33%

2–41%

3

3–04%

3–16%

3–24%

3–32%

3–41%

4

4–02%

4–13%

4–22%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (9%) · grid covers 94% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

97%3%1.5

86%14%2.5

67%33%3.5

45%55%4.5

26%74%

Double chance

Northcote City or draw

71%

Northcote City or Kingston City

78%

Draw or Kingston City

51%

Winning margin

Northcote City wins by 2+

28%

Kingston City wins by 2+

13%

Team goals

Northcote City 1+ goals

86%

Northcote City 2+ goals

59%

Northcote City 3+ goals

31%

Kingston City 1+ goals

77%

Kingston City 2+ goals

43%

Kingston City 3+ goals

19%

Draw no bet

Northcote City (draw refunded)

63%

Kingston City (draw refunded)

37%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

57%

Both score & under 3

9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Northcote City at home — creates 1.79, concedes 1.21 · 67 matches

Kingston City away — creates 1.74, concedes 2.16 · 57 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Northcote City attack 1.79 + Kingston City defence 2.16 → ÷2 → 1.98

Kingston City attack 1.74 + Northcote City defence 1.21 → ÷2 → 1.48

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 49%?"

Northcote City scores more

49%

level

22%

Kingston City scores more

29%

Northcote City at 49% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 49% does not mean "Northcote City will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff