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Northcote City vs Brunswick City — Victoria NPL 2 2026

Northcote City
Northcote City
FT
4 – 1
HT: 2 – 0
Brunswick City
Brunswick City
4/25/2025Victoria NPL 2Victoria NPL 2 · Round 11John Cain Memorial Reserve

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 68+ matches

Northcote City49%
×Draw23%
Brunswick City28%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Northcote City
1.83
Brunswick City
1.35

Northcote City creates 36% more chances

Season form · 68 home / 68 away

creates per match

Northcote City
1.81
Brunswick City
1.46

allows per match

Northcote City
1.24
Brunswick City
1.84

finishing

Northcote City+0.00on par
Brunswick City+0.00on par

Total goals

61%Over
  • Over61
  • Under39

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

62%Yes
  • Yes62
  • No38

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Northcote City ↓

Brunswick City →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–04%
0–16%
0–24%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–08%
1–110%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–19%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–04%
3–16%
3–24%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–02%
4–13%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
96%4%1.5
83%17%2.5
61%39%3.5
39%61%4.5
21%79%

Double chance

Northcote City or draw
72%
Northcote City or Brunswick City
77%
Draw or Brunswick City
51%

Winning margin

Northcote City wins by 2+
27%
Brunswick City wins by 2+
12%

Team goals

Northcote City 1+ goals
84%
Northcote City 2+ goals
54%
Northcote City 3+ goals
28%
Brunswick City 1+ goals
74%
Brunswick City 2+ goals
39%
Brunswick City 3+ goals
15%

Draw no bet

Northcote City (draw refunded)
63%
Brunswick City (draw refunded)
37%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
52%
Both score & under 3
10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Northcote City at home — creates 1.81, concedes 1.24 · 68 matches

Brunswick City away — creates 1.46, concedes 1.84 · 68 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Northcote City attack 1.81 + Brunswick City defence 1.84 → ÷2 → 1.83

Brunswick City attack 1.46 + Northcote City defence 1.24 → ÷2 → 1.35

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 49%?"

Northcote City scores more
49%
level
23%
Brunswick City scores more
28%

Northcote City at 49% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 49% does not mean "Northcote City will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Northcote City vs Brunswick City

Northcote City beat Brunswick City 4-1 in Victoria NPL 2 on April 25, 2025.

The match was played at John Cain Memorial Reserve in Melbourne.