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Northampton vs Wrexham — League One 2018

Northampton
Northampton
FT
0 – 2
HT: 0 – 2
Wrexham
Wrexham
O. Rathbone 22'
S. Smith 19'
2/15/2025League OneLeague One · Round 32Sixfields Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 23+ matches

Northampton31%
×Draw30%
Wrexham40%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.4%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 578,261 matches, vs 44.4% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50% correct · Away picks 48.9% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Northampton
0.97
Wrexham
1.15

Wrexham creates 19% more chances

Season form · 102 home / 23 away

creates per match

Northampton
1.11
Wrexham
1.13

allows per match

Northampton
1.18
Wrexham
0.83

finishing

Northampton+0.00on par
Wrexham+0.00on par

Total goals

64%Under
  • Under64
  • Over36

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

58%No
  • No58
  • Yes42

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Northampton ↓

Wrexham →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–012%
0–114%
0–28%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–012%
1–113%
1–28%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–06%
2–16%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–02%
3–12%
3–21%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–00%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 0–1 (14%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
88%12%1.5
63%37%2.5
36%64%3.5
16%84%4.5
6%94%

Double chance

Northampton or draw
60%
Northampton or Wrexham
70%
Draw or Wrexham
69%

Winning margin

Northampton wins by 2+
11%
Wrexham wins by 2+
17%

Team goals

Northampton 1+ goals
62%
Northampton 2+ goals
25%
Northampton 3+ goals
7%
Wrexham 1+ goals
68%
Wrexham 2+ goals
32%
Wrexham 3+ goals
11%

Draw no bet

Northampton (draw refunded)
43%
Wrexham (draw refunded)
57%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
29%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Northampton at home — creates 1.11, concedes 1.18 · 102 matches

Wrexham away — creates 1.13, concedes 0.83 · 23 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Northampton attack 1.11 + Wrexham defence 0.83 → ÷2 → 0.97

Wrexham attack 1.13 + Northampton defence 1.18 → ÷2 → 1.15

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 40%?"

Northampton scores more
31%
level
30%
Wrexham scores more
40%

Wrexham at 40% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 40% does not mean "Wrexham will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

5
E. O'ConnellWrexhamWrexham · D
7.7

Match Events

19'
S. Smith
22'
O. Rathbone
37'
A. McGowan← J. Willis
45'
Ben Perry
50'
J. Wilson← T. Fosu
71'
S. Fletcher← J. Rodríguez
77'
J. Baldwin← B. Perry
77'
T. Magloire← A. Odimayo
79'
R. Longman← R. Barnett
79'
J. Marriott← S. Smith
86'
Cameron McGeehan
86'
Max Cleworth

Possession

42%Northampton

Shots

5Northampton

Pass accuracy

46%Northampton

Statistics

NorthamptonWrexham
Overview
42%Possession58%
5Total Shots14
3Corners5
9Fouls5
Shots
5Total Shots14
0On Target3
3Off Target6
2Blocked5
2Inside Box11
3Outside Box3
Passing
42%Possession58%
328Total Passes458
192Accurate Passes320
59%Pass Accuracy70%
Goalkeeping
1Saves0
Discipline
9Fouls5
2Yellow Cards1
1Offsides4

Match Recap: Northampton vs Wrexham

Wrexham beat Northampton 2-0 in League One on February 15, 2025.

Goals: S. Smith (19'), O. Rathbone (22').

Wrexham controlled possession (58%) and registered 14 shots to 5.

The match was played at Sixfields Stadium in Northampton, East Midlands.