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Northampton vs Wigan — League One 2018

Northampton
Northampton
FT
1 – 1
HT: 1 – 0
Wigan
Wigan
5/3/2025League OneLeague One · Round 46Sixfields Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 93+ matches

Northampton35%
×Draw27%
Wigan38%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Northampton
1.20
Wigan
1.25

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 93 home / 116 away

creates per match

Northampton
1.05
Wigan
1.32

allows per match

Northampton
1.19
Wigan
1.34

finishing

Northampton+0.00on par
Wigan+0.00on par

Total goals

56%Under
  • Under56
  • Over44

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

50%No
  • No50
  • Yes50

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Northampton ↓

Wigan →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–09%
0–111%
0–27%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–010%
1–113%
1–28%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–06%
2–18%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–02%
3–13%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
91%9%1.5
70%30%2.5
44%56%3.5
23%77%4.5
10%90%

Double chance

Northampton or draw
62%
Northampton or Wigan
73%
Draw or Wigan
65%

Winning margin

Northampton wins by 2+
15%
Wigan wins by 2+
16%

Team goals

Northampton 1+ goals
70%
Northampton 2+ goals
34%
Northampton 3+ goals
12%
Wigan 1+ goals
71%
Wigan 2+ goals
36%
Wigan 3+ goals
13%

Draw no bet

Northampton (draw refunded)
48%
Wigan (draw refunded)
52%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
37%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Northampton at home — creates 1.05, concedes 1.19 · 93 matches

Wigan away — creates 1.32, concedes 1.34 · 116 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Northampton attack 1.05 + Wigan defence 1.34 → ÷2 → 1.20

Wigan attack 1.32 + Northampton defence 1.19 → ÷2 → 1.25

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 38%?"

Northampton scores more
35%
level
27%
Wigan scores more
38%

Wigan at 38% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 38% does not mean "Wigan will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Northampton vs Wigan

Northampton and Wigan drew 1-1 in League One on May 3, 2025.

The match was played at Sixfields Stadium in Northampton, East Midlands.