Northampton 0–1 Wigan: Result & Stats | League One

Northampton

FT

0 – 1

HT: 0 – 0

Wigan

C. Lang 81'

2/9/2021

League One · Round 27PTS Academy Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 9+ matches

Northampton39%

×Draw25%

Wigan36%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.2%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

NorthamptonExpected goals in this matchWigan

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.44

1.38

Northampton

1.44

Wigan

1.38

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 9 home / 9 away

1.19

creates per match

1.07

1.69

allows per match

1.70

creates per match

Northampton

1.19

Wigan

1.07

allows per match

Northampton

1.69

Wigan

1.70

-0.08on par

finishing

-0.07on par

finishing

Northampton-0.08on par

Wigan-0.07on par

Total goals

Over53
Under47

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes57
No43

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Northampton ↓

Wigan →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–06%

0–18%

0–26%

0–33%

0–41%

1

1–09%

1–112%

1–28%

1–34%

1–41%

2

2–06%

2–19%

2–26%

2–33%

2–41%

3

3–03%

3–14%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

94%6%1.5

77%23%2.5

53%47%3.5

31%69%4.5

15%85%

Double chance

Northampton or draw

64%

Northampton or Wigan

75%

Draw or Wigan

61%

Winning margin

Northampton wins by 2+

18%

Wigan wins by 2+

16%

Team goals

Northampton 1+ goals

76%

Northampton 2+ goals

42%

Northampton 3+ goals

18%

Wigan 1+ goals

75%

Wigan 2+ goals

40%

Wigan 3+ goals

16%

Draw no bet

Northampton (draw refunded)

52%

Wigan (draw refunded)

48%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

45%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Northampton at home — creates 1.19, concedes 1.69 · 9 matches

Wigan away — creates 1.07, concedes 1.70 · 9 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Northampton attack 1.19 + Wigan defence 1.70 → ÷2 → 1.44

Wigan attack 1.07 + Northampton defence 1.69 → ÷2 → 1.38

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 39%?"

Northampton scores more

39%

level

25%

Wigan scores more

36%

Northampton at 39% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 39% does not mean "Northampton will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

30

T. Aasgaard

Wigan · M

7.7

Match Events

34'

Jack Sowerby

41'

Cian Bolger

46'

R. Watson← J. Sowerby

46'

B. Morris← S. McWilliams

64'

Curtis Tilt

65'

Peter Kioso

67'

B. Ashley-Seal← R. Edmondson

68'

R. Korboa← J. Mills

76'

V. Solomon-Otabor← T. Aasgaard

81'

C. Lang↳ L. Robinson

83'

Will Keane

85'

C. Chukwuemeka← C. Bolger

88'

J. Dodoo← W. Keane

90+6'

C. Whelan← C. Lang

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

NorthamptonWigan

Overview

51%Possession49%

6Total Shots8

3Corners1

17Fouls15

Shots

6Total Shots8

1On Target2

2Off Target3

3Blocked3

4Inside Box5

2Outside Box3

Passing

51%Possession49%

298Total Passes286

166Accurate Passes154

56%Pass Accuracy54%

Goalkeeping

1Saves1

Discipline

17Fouls15

3Yellow Cards2

2Offsides2